Matchup Machine

Willson Contreras

Worst 25% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 23% of matchups for W. Contreras

Strong advantage for Contreras

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.0%	4.5%	14.9%	8.0%	17.0%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.2	+1.0	-1.7	-8.2
Contreras	+0.6	-0.1	+2.3	-2.3	-7.5
Gomber	+0.7	+0.1	-1.3	+0.1	+0.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.0%

4.5%

14.9%

8.0%

17.0%

MLB (+/-)

+1.1

+0.2

+1.0

-1.7

-8.2

Contreras

+0.6

-0.1

+2.3

-2.3

-7.5

Gomber

+0.7

+0.1

-1.3

+0.1

+0.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.77	0.91	0.05	0.81			.590

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-04-17	Home Run	91%	5%	3%	2%
2022-04-17	Fielders Choice			64%	36%
2022-04-17	Groundout			14%	86%
2020-08-19	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	53%	68	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

53%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	46%	53	Fastball	16	45%
⭐	30%	78	Breaking	-26	37%
	10%	42	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
	47%	57	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
⭐⭐	55%	91	Slider	-6	20%
	55%	49	Changeup	0	18%
	50%	18	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

46%

Fastball

45%

⭐

30%

Breaking

-26

37%

10%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

47%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

⭐⭐

55%

Slider

-6

20%

55%

Changeup

18%

50%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	61%	84	Bottom of zone	13	13%
	67%	13	Top of zone	-3	12%
⭐⭐	66%	94	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
⭐⭐	75%	107	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
	90%	14	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

61%

Bottom of zone

13%

67%

Top of zone

-3

12%

⭐⭐

66%

Away / Arm Side

11%

⭐⭐

75%

107

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

90%

Middle

-23

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
46%	46	Below the zone	22	30%
43%	5	In / Glove Side	30	24%
34%	41	Above the zone	8	24%
31%	40	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

46%

Below the zone

30%

43%

In / Glove Side

24%

34%

Above the zone

24%

31%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐	38%	62	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	55%	101	Batter Behind	0	28%
	50%	-12	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐	63%	67	2 Strikes	-23	26%
	57%	-4	3 Balls	2	8%
	70%	-10	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐

38%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

55%

101

Batter Behind

28%

50%

-12

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

63%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

57%

-4

3 Balls

70%

-10

Full Count

-9