Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Matt Carpenter

matchup for Dustin May

9th out of 436 (Best 3%)

Dustin May

matchup for Matt Carpenter

out of 567 (Worst %)

Strong advantage for May

Matt Carpenter has a 27.7% chance of reaching base vs Dustin May, which is 2.5% lower than Carpenter's typical expectations, and 4.4% lower than batters facing May.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.7%	16.4%	2.0%	3.6%	10.7%	11.3%	35.1%
Carpenter	-2.5	+0.2	-0.7	-0.4	+1.3	-2.6	+1.3
May	-4.4	-7.7	-0.4	-0.7	-6.5	+3.3	+11.8

Matt Carpenter is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Dustin May is right handed .

Dustin May throws a Sinker 42% of the time. Matt Carpenter has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

42%

Cutter (R)

23%

Curve (R)

17%

4-Seam (R)

15%

12% of Dustin May's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Matt Carpenter has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

Meatball 2%

-4%

43% of Dustin May's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Matt Carpenter has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 43%

+28%

Fastball (R) 79%

+26%

Extreme Fast Velo 22%

+19%

Just Gravity 32%

+18%

18.2% of Matt Carpenter's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 6.0% higher than the league average. Dustin May strikes out 21.6% of the batters he faces, which is 7.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +6.0% +7.8% 2%

Walk +5.4% -3.5% 44%

In Play -11.5% -4.2% 39%

On Base -4.7% -4.8% 31%

Hit -10.1% -1.2% 14%

Single -5.7% +0.6% 13%

2B / 3B -5.5% +0.1% 3%

Home Run +1.0% -2.0%

23.3% of Matt Carpenter's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 11.1% lower than the league average. Dustin May induces Standard Grounders at a 43.1% rate, which is 8.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.1% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -11.1% +8.7% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.2% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer -2.5% +1.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.1% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.9% -2.4% 3%

Likely Homer +2.4% -2.3% 1%

No Doubter +0.8% -0.9% 20%

Routine Flyout +10.4% -1.4% 3%

Pop up -1.7% -0.7%

21.2% of Matt Carpenter's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 20.9% of batted balls allowed by Dustin May are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.7% +1.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.6% +0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +5.0% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +4.4% +1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -3.1% -3.4%

17.7% of Matt Carpenter's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 6.3% higher than the league average. 9.3% of batted balls allowed by Dustin May are hit at this angle, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -9.3% +8.1% 12%

-10 to 0° -4.1% +3.1% 8%

1 to 6° -1.1% -3.2% 18%

7 to 18° +0.6% -1.8% 15%

19 to 28° +3.2% -1.6% 11%

29 to 38° +6.3% -2.1% 7%

39 to 50° +5.7% -0.1% 8%

Above 50° -1.3% -2.3%

Matt Carpenter has 5 plate appearances against Dustin May in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.16	0.00	0.10	0.05			0.040

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-12	Walk
2023-05-12	Flyout		1%		99%
2023-05-12	Strikeout
2023-05-06	Strikeout
2023-05-06	Forceout		9%	5%	85%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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