Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nolan Arenado

matchup for Will Warren

335th out of 436 (Worst 23%)

Will Warren

matchup for Nolan Arenado

209th out of 567 (Best 38%)

Strong advantage for Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 35.1% chance of reaching base vs Will Warren, which is 2.8% higher than Arenado's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Warren.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.1%	23.6%	1.8%	5.7%	16.1%	11.5%	18.3%
Arenado	+2.8	-0.6	-0.2	+0.2	-0.6	+3.5	+2.0
Warren	+1.6	+1.7	-0.9	+0.3	+2.3	-0.1	-8.0

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Will Warren is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Arenado has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Will Warren throws a Sinker 30% of the time. Nolan Arenado has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

28%

Slider (R)

27%

Changeup (R)

10%

Cutter (R)

9% of Will Warren's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a D grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 9%

+4%

Likely Ball 23%

+4%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Edge Painter 16%

-1%

Mid Challenge 8%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

36% of Will Warren's pitches are classified as Small Drop, which is 24% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Small Drop 36%

+24%

Extreme Break 33%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Fastball (R) 63%

+9%

8.8% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Will Warren strikes out 20.6% of the batters he faces, which is 3.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% +3.0% 5%

Walk -1.1% +1.4% 35%

In Play +10.9% -4.3% 39%

On Base +6.3% -0.5% 31%

Hit +7.4% -1.8% 14%

Single +3.8% -1.9% 13%

2B / 3B +4.0% -1.5% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +1.6%

29.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Will Warren induces Standard Grounders at a 33.7% rate, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.8% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% -0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -1.2% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% -2.8% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% +1.8% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% +7.7% 3%

Pop up +1.8% -2.8%

22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 26.4% of batted balls allowed by Will Warren are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% -9.0% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% -5.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% +6.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% +6.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.9% +2.1%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 8.4% of batted balls allowed by Will Warren are hit at this angle, which is 3.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% +2.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -2.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% -2.9% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% +4.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -3.0% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% +2.5% 8%

Above 50° +2.8% -1.9%

Nolan Arenado has 2 plate appearances against Will Warren in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 2.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	2	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			1.00	0.00	0.02	0.98			0.502

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-31	Groundout		1%	4%	95%
2024-08-31	Single		1%	94%	5%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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