Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nolan Arenado

matchup for Ryan Weathers

321st out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Ryan Weathers

matchup for Nolan Arenado

408th out of 567 (Worst 28%)

Leans in favor of Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Ryan Weathers, which is 1.9% lower than Arenado's typical expectations, and 0.5% higher than batters facing Weathers.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.4%	23.8%	1.5%	6.2%	16.1%	6.6%	16.4%
Arenado	-1.9	-0.4	-0.5	+0.7	-0.6	-1.5	+0.1
Weathers	+0.5	+2.3	-0.6	+0.7	+2.1	-1.8	-8.4

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. Ryan Weathers is left handed with an extreme release toward the first base side. Arenado has a C grade vs this particular release point.

Ryan Weathers throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

44%

Slider (L)

25%

Changeup (L)

18%

Sinker (L)

13%

12% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Likely Ball 21%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Non-Competitive 13%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Edge Painter 17%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

53% of Ryan Weathers's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 53%

+32%

Fast Velo 28%

+19%

Low Ride 37%

+14%

8.8% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers strikes out 14.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% -2.1% 5%

Walk -1.1% -0.6% 35%

In Play +10.9% +2.7% 39%

On Base +6.3% +0.9% 31%

Hit +7.4% +1.5% 14%

Single +3.8% +0.9% 13%

2B / 3B +4.0% +1.2% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -0.5%

29.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Ryan Weathers induces Standard Grounders at a 40.1% rate, which is 5.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% +5.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% +1.4% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.5% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% -5.5% 3%

Pop up +1.8% +1.2%

22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 25.4% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% -0.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.9% +1.1%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Ryan Weathers are hit at this angle, which is 3.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +3.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% +2.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% +1.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% -3.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -3.8% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% +0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.8% -0.9%

Nolan Arenado has 3 plate appearances against Ryan Weathers in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a double and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.58	0.00	0.11	0.47			0.193

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-04	Double		11%	2%	87%
2024-04-04	GIDP			8%	92%
2024-04-04	Forceout			37%	63%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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