matchup for JP Sears
5
Nolan Arenado has a 29.2% chance of reaching base vs JP Sears, which is 3.6% lower than Arenado's typical expectations, and 0.7% lower than batters facing Sears.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 29.2% | 23.1% | 2.2% | 7.0% | 13.9% | 6.1% | 9.6% |
| Arenado | -3.6 | -1.5 | +0.3 | +1.3 | -3.1 | -2.1 | -5.6 |
| Sears | -0.7 | +0.5 | -1.3 | +1.1 | +0.8 | -1.2 | -8.8 |
Nolan Arenado is about the same vs left-handed pitching as he is against right. JP Sears is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Arenado has an A grade vs this particular release point.
JP Sears throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (L)
43%
Slider (L)
33%
Changeup (L)
17%
Sinker (L)
6%
14% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
14%
+2%
Meatball
7%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Non-Competitive
10%
-2%
Weak Challenge
6%
-2%
40% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Large Break
40%
+18%
Medium Fast Velo
28%
+13%
Small Drop
23%
+10%
8.7% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. JP Sears strikes out 14.0% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
18%
Strikeout
-9.9%
-2.6%
5%
Walk
-1.4%
-1.1%
35%
In Play
+11.3%
+3.7%
39%
On Base
+5.8%
-2.5%
31%
Hit
+7.2%
-1.4%
14%
Single
+3.8%
-1.5%
13%
2B / 3B
+4.0%
-1.1%
3%
Home Run
-0.6%
+1.2%
29.2% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. JP Sears induces Standard Grounders at a 27.3% rate, which is 7.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.4%
-0.5%
34%
Standard Grounder
-5.2%
-7.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.7%
-0.1%
14%
Low Screamer
+1.0%
-2.0%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.9%
0.0%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.3%
+3.3%
3%
Likely Homer
0.0%
-0.1%
1%
No Doubter
-0.1%
+1.7%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.4%
+0.8%
3%
Pop up
+1.8%
+3.9%
22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 26.1% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-2.1%
+2.8%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.9%
-6.3%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+2.6%
+1.3%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.5%
+0.4%
24%
Above 100 mph
-1.9%
+1.8%
11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. 16.0% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at this angle, which is 4.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-3.7%
-2.6%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.0%
-2.4%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.2%
-0.9%
18%
7 to 18°
-1.1%
-3.1%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.6%
-0.1%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.2%
+4.6%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.0%
+0.1%
8%
Above 50°
+2.9%
+4.3%
Nolan Arenado has 5 plate appearances against JP Sears in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a strikeout.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.55 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.53 | 0.309 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-04-16 | Single | ||||
| 2024-04-16 | Pop Out | ||||
| 2023-08-14 | Flyout | 99% | |||
| 2023-08-14 | Pop Out | 1% | 62% | 37% | |
| 2023-08-14 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
