matchup for Corbin Burnes
matchup for Nolan Arenado
2
Nolan Arenado has a 31.7% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 1.1% lower than Arenado's typical expectations, and 1.9% higher than batters facing Burnes.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.7% | 25.2% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 18.7% | 6.5% | 16.0% |
| Arenado | -1.1 | +0.6 | -0.5 | -0.6 | +1.7 | -1.7 | +0.8 |
| Burnes | +1.9 | +3.4 | -0.9 | +0.7 | +3.6 | -1.5 | -7.3 |
Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Arenado has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.
Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Nolan Arenado has a B grade against right-handed Cutters
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
Cutter (R)
52%
Curve (R)
19%
Slider (R)
10%
Changeup (R)
10%
Sinker (R)
7%
24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a C grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Likely Ball
24%
+4%
Weak Challenge
10%
+2%
Chaser
8%
+2%
Fringe Miss
14%
+1%
Edge Painter
17%
-1%
Mid Challenge
10%
-1%
Strong Challenge
4%
-1%
Non-Competitive
9%
-3%
Meatball
2%
-4%
47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Low Ride
47%
+23%
Fast Velo
36%
+21%
Small Break
31%
+20%
8.7% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.9% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
18%
Strikeout
-9.9%
+3.2%
5%
Walk
-1.4%
-1.6%
35%
In Play
+11.3%
-1.6%
39%
On Base
+5.8%
-3.4%
31%
Hit
+7.2%
-1.8%
14%
Single
+3.8%
-0.7%
13%
2B / 3B
+4.0%
-0.2%
3%
Home Run
-0.6%
-0.8%
29.2% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 39.8% rate, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.4%
-0.2%
34%
Standard Grounder
-5.2%
+5.4%
7%
Hard Grounder
+0.7%
+0.9%
14%
Low Screamer
+1.0%
-1.2%
9%
Rising Liner
-0.9%
-1.0%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.3%
-1.2%
3%
Likely Homer
0.0%
-0.2%
1%
No Doubter
-0.1%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+3.4%
-2.4%
3%
Pop up
+1.8%
-0.1%
22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-2.1%
+2.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+0.9%
-0.2%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+2.6%
+2.9%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.5%
-4.5%
24%
Above 100 mph
-1.9%
-0.4%
11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. 10.3% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-3.7%
+2.0%
12%
-10 to 0°
-1.0%
+1.1%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.2%
+2.4%
18%
7 to 18°
-1.1%
-1.6%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.6%
-4.3%
11%
29 to 38°
+0.2%
-1.1%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.0%
-0.9%
8%
Above 50°
+2.9%
+2.4%
Nolan Arenado has 12 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 12 with a home run and
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 12 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.167 |
| Expected From Contact → | 1.60 | 0.90 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.134 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2023-05-17 | Single | 2% | 98% | ||
| 2023-05-17 | Pop Out | 99% | |||
| 2023-05-17 | Flyout | 1% | 4% | 95% | |
| 2022-09-14 | Groundout | 4% | 96% | ||
| 2022-09-14 | GIDP | 5% | 95% | ||
| 2022-09-14 | Home Run | 88% | 10% | 1% | |
| 2022-08-13 | Pop Out | 1% | 98% | ||
| 2022-08-13 | Groundout | 6% | 94% | ||
| 2022-08-13 | Groundout | 21% | 78% | ||
| 2022-06-20 | Flyout | 99% | |||
| 2022-06-20 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2022-06-20 | Groundout | 8% | 6% | 86% | |
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
