Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nolan Arenado

matchup for Jake Irvin

270th out of 436 (Worst 38%)

Jake Irvin

matchup for Nolan Arenado

138th out of 564 (Best 25%)

Strong advantage for Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 34.1% chance of reaching base vs Jake Irvin, which is 1.8% higher than Arenado's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Irvin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	34.1%	26.1%	2.3%	5.4%	18.4%	8.0%	12.5%
Arenado	+1.8	+1.9	+0.3	-0.1	+1.7	-0.1	-3.8
Irvin	+0.2	+1.7	-0.8	0.0	+2.5	-1.5	-7.4

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jake Irvin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Arenado has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Jake Irvin throws a 4-seam fastball 36% of the time. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

36%

Curve (R)

31%

Sinker (R)

26%

10% of Jake Irvin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

Chaser 5%

-2%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

17% of Jake Irvin's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 12% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 17%

+12%

Fastball (R) 65%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

Large Drop 15%

+10%

8.8% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Jake Irvin strikes out 12.8% of the batters he faces, which is 4.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% -4.3% 5%

Walk -1.1% -0.5% 35%

In Play +10.9% +4.8% 39%

On Base +6.3% +1.3% 31%

Hit +7.4% +1.9% 14%

Single +3.8% +0.3% 13%

2B / 3B +4.0% +0.5% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +1.1%

29.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Jake Irvin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% +1.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +1.1% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% +3.0% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% +2.1% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% -4.9% 3%

Pop up +1.8% -1.5%

22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 27.9% of batted balls allowed by Jake Irvin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% -7.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% +0.6% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% -1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% +4.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.9% +3.6%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 9.7% of batted balls allowed by Jake Irvin are hit at this angle, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +1.5% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% +1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% +0.5% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% +3.5% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% +0.0% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -1.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -3.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.8% -1.6%

Nolan Arenado has 4 plate appearances against Jake Irvin in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 3 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	0.333
Expected From Contact →			0.55	0.00	0.02	0.53			0.183

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-27	Strikeout
2024-07-27	Strikeout
2023-07-15	Single		2%	53%	45%
2023-07-15	Walk

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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