Matchup Machine

Nolan Arenado

Worst 3% of matchups for Trevor Megill

Trevor Megill

Worst 9% of matchups for Nolan Arenado

Moderate advantage for Arenado

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.8%	4.7%	16.8%	7.7%	21.4%
MLB (+/-)	+0.0	+0.4	+2.8	-1.9	-3.8
Arenado	-0.5	-0.4	-0.1	+0.1	+6.5
Megill	+0.5	+0.9	+2.6	-1.9	-11.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.8%

4.7%

16.8%

7.7%

21.4%

MLB (+/-)

+0.0

+0.4

+2.8

-1.9

-3.8

Arenado

-0.5

-0.4

-0.1

+0.1

+6.5

Megill

+0.5

+0.9

+2.6

-1.9

-11.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	.500
Expected From Contact →			0.78	0.01	0.61	0.16			.389

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Sac Fly		1%		98%
2021-10-02	Walk
2021-09-24	Single		60%	15%	24%
2021-06-12	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	51%	89	RHB vs RHP	94	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

51%

RHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	55	Fastball	101	70%	⭐
⭐	35%	100	Breaking	52	30%
			------------------
	45%	92	Four-Seam FB	98	70%
	57%	56	Knuckle-Curve	106	23%	⭐
	55%	75	Slider	37	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

101

70%

⭐

35%

100

Breaking

30%

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

70%

57%

Knuckle-Curve

106

23%

⭐

55%

Slider

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
67%	35	Top of zone	100	16%	⭐⭐
65%	69	Away / Glove Side	95	16%
69%	58	Bottom of zone	100	12%	⭐
70%	72	In / Arm Side	108	10%
75%	81	Middle	97	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

67%

Top of zone

100

16%

⭐⭐

65%

Away / Glove Side

16%

69%

Bottom of zone

100

12%

⭐

70%

In / Arm Side

108

10%

75%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	48%	103	Below the zone	49	31%
	41%	94	Away / Glove Side	57	30%
	29%	28	Above the zone	71	24%	⭐
	37%	57	In / Arm Side	31	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

48%

103

Below the zone

31%

41%

Away / Glove Side

30%

29%

Above the zone

24%

⭐

37%

In / Arm Side

13%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
70%	78	2 Strikes	102	34%
58%	103	Batter Behind	102	34%
60%	86	Batter Ahead	94	26%
30%	40	First Pitch	102	24%	⭐⭐
70%	21	3 Balls	93	9%	⭐⭐
81%	5	Full Count	94	6%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

70%

2 Strikes

102

34%

58%

103

Batter Behind

102

34%

60%

Batter Ahead

26%

30%

First Pitch

102

24%

⭐⭐

70%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

81%

Full Count

⭐⭐