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Nolan Arenado

matchup for Mitch Keller

319th out of 436 (Worst 27%)

Mitch Keller

matchup for Nolan Arenado

286th out of 567 (Best 51%)

Moderate advantage for Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Mitch Keller, which is 0.6% higher than Arenado's typical expectations, and 0.7% higher than batters facing Keller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	26.7%	1.9%	5.4%	19.4%	6.2%	16.7%
Arenado	+0.6	+2.5	-0.1	-0.1	+2.7	-1.9	+0.4
Keller	+0.7	+2.4	-0.8	+0.3	+2.9	-1.6	-8.8

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Mitch Keller is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Arenado has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Mitch Keller throws a 4-seam fastball 34% of the time. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

34%

Slider (R)

21%

Sinker (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

12%

Curve (R)

11%

13% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Meatball 4%

-3%

64% of Mitch Keller's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 10% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a B+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

Fast Velo 24%

+9%

8.8% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Mitch Keller strikes out 16.1% of the batters he faces, which is 1.0% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% +1.0% 5%

Walk -1.1% -1.9% 35%

In Play +10.9% +0.8% 39%

On Base +6.3% +0.9% 31%

Hit +7.4% +2.8% 14%

Single +3.8% +1.2% 13%

2B / 3B +4.0% +1.6% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.0%

29.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Mitch Keller induces Standard Grounders at a 35.2% rate, which is 0.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% +0.8% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -1.1% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% +1.9% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% +1.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% -0.6% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.0% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% -2.5% 3%

Pop up +1.8% 0.0%

22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 24.8% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% +2.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% -1.8% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% +0.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.9% +0.5%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 12.6% of batted balls allowed by Mitch Keller are hit at this angle, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% -2.2% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -0.4% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% -0.9% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% +1.2% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.8% -1.0%

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	20	19	3	0	1	2	2	1	0.158
Expected From Contact →			3.42	0.01	0.50	2.92			0.180

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-22	Flyout			1%	98%
2024-07-22	Pop Out			3%	97%
2024-07-22	Walk
2024-07-02	Flyout				99%
2024-07-02	Groundout			4%	96%
2024-07-02	Hit By Pitch
2024-06-13	Groundout			42%	58%
2024-06-13	Flyout				100%
2024-06-13	Flyout		2%		98%
2023-09-01	Lineout		12%	7%	81%
2023-09-01	Groundout			11%	89%
2023-09-01	Strikeout
2023-04-16	Single		4%	54%	42%
2023-04-16	Flyout				99%
2023-04-16	Strikeout
2022-06-13	Lineout		7%	15%	78%
2022-06-13	Flyout		1%		99%
2022-06-13	GIDP			62%	38%
2022-04-09	Double		20%	6%	74%
2022-04-09	Single		1%	86%	13%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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