Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nolan Arenado

matchup for Pablo Lopez

369th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Pablo Lopez

matchup for Nolan Arenado

285th out of 567 (Best 51%)

Moderate advantage for Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 32.4% chance of reaching base vs Pablo Lopez, which is 0.1% higher than Arenado's typical expectations, and 1.3% higher than batters facing Lopez.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.4%	26.0%	2.3%	5.7%	18.0%	6.4%	16.7%
Arenado	-0.1	+2.0	+0.2	+0.2	+1.6	-2.1	+1.1
Lopez	+1.3	+2.2	-0.6	+0.8	+2.0	-0.9	-10.3

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Pablo Lopez is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Arenado has a B+ grade vs this particular release point.

Pablo Lopez throws a 4-seam fastball 37% of the time. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

37%

Changeup (R)

25%

Slider (R)

13%

Curve (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

8% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Weak Challenge 9%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Meatball 4%

-2%

Non-Competitive 8%

-4%

25% of Pablo Lopez's pitches are classified as Offspeed Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Offspeed (R) 25%

+14%

Extreme Break 26%

+11%

Fast Velo 26%

+11%

8.6% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez strikes out 18.7% of the batters he faces, which is 4.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -10.1% +4.2% 5%

Walk -1.7% -2.5% 35%

In Play +11.8% -1.7% 39%

On Base +6.3% -2.2% 31%

Hit +8.0% +0.3% 14%

Single +4.3% +0.4% 13%

2B / 3B +4.1% +0.2% 3%

Home Run -0.4% -0.3%

29.2% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Pablo Lopez induces Standard Grounders at a 38.2% rate, which is 3.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% +3.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -1.4% 14%

Low Screamer +1.0% +1.5% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% -0.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% -0.9% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.6% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.4% -0.9% 3%

Pop up +1.8% -0.5%

22.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 2.0% lower than the league average. 22.1% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.2% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% +0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% +3.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.7% -0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% -1.6% 24%

Above 100 mph -2.0% -2.2%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Pablo Lopez are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +2.9% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% +0.7% 8%

1 to 6° +0.1% -1.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% -1.0% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% +0.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +0.0% 8%

Above 50° +2.9% -0.7%

Nolan Arenado has 15 plate appearances against Pablo Lopez in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 15 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	15	5	0	0	5	2	0	0.333
Expected From Contact →			4.65	0.00	0.76	3.89			0.310

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2025-03-27	Single
2025-03-27	Lineout
2025-03-27	Groundout
2024-08-24	Strikeout
2024-08-24	Flyout			3%	97%
2024-08-24	Single		43%	48%	9%
2023-08-01	Single		11%	85%	4%
2023-08-01	Flyout		5%		94%
2023-08-01	Groundout			2%	98%
2022-06-27	Flyout				100%
2022-06-27	Pop Out		1%	3%	96%
2022-06-27	Strikeout
2022-04-21	Single		10%	62%	28%
2022-04-21	Single		4%	87%	9%
2022-04-21	Flyout				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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