Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Nolan Arenado

matchup for Zach Eflin

325th out of 436 (Worst 26%)

Zach Eflin

matchup for Nolan Arenado

307th out of 567 (Worst 46%)

Moderate advantage for Arenado

Nolan Arenado has a 30.4% chance of reaching base vs Zach Eflin, which is 1.9% lower than Arenado's typical expectations, and 1.0% higher than batters facing Eflin.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.4%	25.1%	2.5%	5.8%	16.8%	5.3%	14.1%
Arenado	-1.9	+0.9	+0.4	+0.3	+0.1	-2.8	-2.2
Eflin	+1.0	+2.0	-0.7	+0.3	+2.3	-1.0	-5.3

Nolan Arenado is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Zach Eflin is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Arenado has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Zach Eflin throws a Sinker 33% of the time. Nolan Arenado has a B grade against right-handed Sinkers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Sinker (R)

33%

Curve (R)

19%

Cutter (R)

16%

Slider (R)

13%

4-Seam (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

12% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 12%

+4%

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+1%

Meatball 6%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

35% of Zach Eflin's pitches are classified as Extreme Break Toward Third Base, which is 20% higher than the MLB average. Nolan Arenado has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Break 35%

+20%

Just Gravity 31%

+17%

Extreme Slow Velo 17%

+12%

8.8% of Nolan Arenado's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 9.8% lower than the league average. Zach Eflin strikes out 15.6% of the batters he faces, which is 0.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

18%

Strikeout -9.8% 0.0% 5%

Walk -1.1% -4.0% 35%

In Play +10.9% +4.0% 39%

On Base +6.3% -3.7% 31%

Hit +7.4% +0.2% 14%

Single +3.8% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +4.0% +0.0% 3%

Home Run -0.4% +0.1%

29.3% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.2% lower than the league average. Zach Eflin induces Standard Grounders at a 36.4% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -5.2% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -0.1% 14%

Low Screamer +0.9% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner -0.8% -1.3% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.3% 0.0% 3%

Likely Homer 0.0% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +3.3% -0.1% 3%

Pop up +1.8% +0.4%

22.4% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% lower than the league average. 25.7% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -2.0% +1.7% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.8% -1.5% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.6% +1.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.5% -3.4% 24%

Above 100 mph -1.9% +1.4%

11.7% of Nolan Arenado's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.3% higher than the league average. 11.1% of batted balls allowed by Zach Eflin are hit at this angle, which is 0.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -3.7% +1.7% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.0% +1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +0.2% -0.1% 18%

7 to 18° -1.0% -2.3% 15%

19 to 28° +1.5% -1.1% 11%

29 to 38° +0.3% -0.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.9% +1.8% 8%

Above 50° +2.8% -0.8%

Nolan Arenado has 4 plate appearances against Zach Eflin in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with a home run and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			2.04	0.68	0.62	0.74			0.511

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-08	Flyout	22%	3%		74%
2023-08-08	Flyout	2%	6%		92%
2023-08-08	Home Run	44%	28%	6%	22%
2022-10-07	Single		25%	68%	7%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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