Matchup Machine

Nolan Arenado

Worst 13% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Worst 45% of matchups for Nolan Arenado

Extreme advantage for Arenado

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.6%	4.5%	18.2%	5.4%	8.8%
MLB (+/-)	+0.7	+0.3	+4.2	-4.3	-16.4
Arenado	+0.2	-0.6	+1.1	-2.2	-6.1
Gomber	+0.3	+0.2	+1.9	-2.5	-7.5

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.6%

4.5%

18.2%

5.4%

8.8%

MLB (+/-)

+0.7

+0.3

+4.2

-4.3

-16.4

Arenado

+0.2

-0.6

+1.1

-2.2

-6.1

Gomber

+0.3

+0.2

+1.9

-2.5

-7.5

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	2	1	1	0	1	0	.222
Expected From Contact →			2.44	1.08	0.53	0.83			.271

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-06	Lineout		6%	54%	39%
2023-08-06	Groundout		4%	3%	93%
2022-08-18	Lineout		3%	11%	86%
2022-08-18	Flyout				100%
2022-08-10	Flyout		6%	2%	92%
2022-08-10	Home Run	99%	1%
2021-05-07	Strikeout
2021-05-07	Double	9%	30%		60%
2021-05-07	Groundout		2%	12%	86%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	55%	71	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

55%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	46%	53	Fastball	16	45%
⭐⭐	35%	103	Breaking	-26	37%
⭐⭐	12%	83	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
⭐⭐	45%	89	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
⭐	54%	78	Slider	-6	20%
⭐⭐	65%	81	Changeup	0	18%
	56%	53	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

46%

Fastball

45%

⭐⭐

35%

103

Breaking

-26

37%

⭐⭐

12%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

⭐⭐

45%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

⭐

54%

Slider

-6

20%

⭐⭐

65%

Changeup

18%

56%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	69%	61	Bottom of zone	13	13%
	67%	39	Top of zone	-3	12%
	58%	42	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
⭐	64%	62	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
	78%	34	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

69%

Bottom of zone

13%

67%

Top of zone

-3

12%

58%

Away / Arm Side

11%

⭐

64%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

78%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	48%	103	Below the zone	22	30%
	48%	6	In / Glove Side	30	24%
	29%	27	Above the zone	8	24%
	44%	47	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

48%

103

Below the zone

30%

48%

In / Glove Side

24%

29%

Above the zone

24%

44%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	30%	34	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	58%	103	Batter Behind	0	28%
⭐⭐	60%	83	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐	70%	78	2 Strikes	-23	26%
	70%	23	3 Balls	2	8%
	80%	7	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

30%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

58%

103

Batter Behind

28%

⭐⭐

60%

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

70%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

70%

3 Balls

80%

Full Count

-9