matchup for Cole Winn
matchup for Elias Diaz
4
Elias Diaz has a 32.3% chance of reaching base vs Cole Winn, which is 2.4% higher than Diaz's typical expectations, and 2.0% lower than batters facing Winn.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 32.3% | 26.1% | 1.8% | 5.9% | 18.3% | 6.3% | 19.0% |
| Diaz | +2.4 | +2.4 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | 0.0 | -4.9 |
| Winn | -2.0 | +1.3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | +2.3 | -3.3 | -2.1 |
Elias Diaz is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Cole Winn is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Diaz has a B grade vs this particular release point.
Cole Winn throws a 4-seam fastball 41% of the time. Elias Diaz has a D- grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
41%
Slider (R)
27%
Splitter (R)
18%
Sinker (R)
8%
15% of Cole Winn's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Elias Diaz has an F grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
15%
+4%
Edge Painter
19%
+2%
Strong Challenge
7%
+2%
Non-Competitive
13%
0%
Fringe Miss
12%
-1%
Weak Challenge
7%
-1%
Meatball
5%
-1%
Likely Ball
18%
-2%
Chaser
4%
-2%
37% of Cole Winn's pitches are classified as Medium Break Toward Third Base, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Elias Diaz has an F grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Medium Break
37%
+17%
Medium Slow Velo
29%
+16%
Small Drop
22%
+9%
Offspeed (R)
21%
+9%
13.3% of Elias Diaz's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.1% lower than the league average. Cole Winn strikes out 11.4% of the batters he faces, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.
15%
Strikeout
-2.1%
-4.0%
5%
Walk
-2.7%
-3.5%
38%
In Play
+4.9%
+7.5%
39%
On Base
+3.7%
+5.2%
31%
Hit
+6.4%
+8.7%
14%
Single
+3.8%
+4.9%
13%
2B / 3B
+3.7%
+5.3%
3%
Home Run
-1.1%
-1.5%
33.8% of Elias Diaz's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. Cole Winn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.7% rate, which is 1.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.1%
-0.8%
34%
Standard Grounder
-0.6%
-1.7%
7%
Hard Grounder
+2.3%
-0.3%
14%
Low Screamer
+3.7%
+2.7%
9%
Rising Liner
-1.6%
-3.0%
4%
Maybe Homer
-1.3%
-0.1%
3%
Likely Homer
-2.5%
+0.7%
1%
No Doubter
-0.1%
-1.2%
20%
Routine Flyout
-1.7%
+5.0%
3%
Pop up
+1.9%
-1.3%
26.2% of Elias Diaz's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 1.9% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Cole Winn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
+2.5%
-6.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
+2.6%
+6.5%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.1%
-2.2%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-3.8%
+2.6%
24%
Above 100 mph
+1.9%
-0.6%
8.1% of Elias Diaz's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. 8.0% of batted balls allowed by Cole Winn are hit at this angle, which is 3.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+0.7%
-6.3%
12%
-10 to 0°
+0.3%
+0.1%
8%
1 to 6°
+3.8%
+0.9%
18%
7 to 18°
-3.6%
+9.2%
15%
19 to 28°
-2.3%
+1.5%
11%
29 to 38°
-3.3%
-3.5%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.1%
-0.9%
8%
Above 50°
+3.2%
-1.1%
Elias Diaz has 1 plate appearance against Cole Winn in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.029 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-05-11 | Forceout | 3% | 97% | ||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
