Matchup Machine

Elias Diaz

Best 46% of matchups for Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Worst 6% of matchups for Elias Diaz

Strong advantage for Snell

- 7

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.5%	3.2%	11.9%	9.2%	34.7%
MLB (+/-)	-0.3	-1.0	-2.0	-0.5	+9.5
Diaz	-0.2	-0.8	-3.2	+1.2	+8.6
Snell	-0.1	-0.3	+0.7	-2.6	+3.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.5%

3.2%

11.9%

9.2%

34.7%

MLB (+/-)

-0.3

-1.0

-2.0

-0.5

+9.5

Diaz

-0.2

-0.8

-3.2

+1.2

+8.6

Snell

-0.1

-0.3

+0.7

-2.6

+3.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	12	2	1	0	1	4	3	.167
Expected From Contact →			2.67	0.99	0.70	0.97			.222

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Lineout		20%	8%	73%
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-09-19	Lineout		6%	6%	88%
2023-03-30	Groundout		17%	7%	75%
2023-03-30	Walk
2022-08-03	Flyout	3%	16%		80%
2022-08-03	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Single			63%	36%
2022-06-19	Forceout		9%	7%	84%
2021-06-16	Walk
2021-06-16	Home Run	96%	2%		1%
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-12	Strikeout
2021-05-12	Forceout			4%	96%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	60%	17	RHB vs LHP	110	82%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

60%

RHB vs LHP

110

82%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
53%	23	Fastball	96	48%	⭐⭐
44%	51	Breaking	108	33%	⭐
18%	24	Offspeed	47	19%
		------------------
49%	6	Four-Seam FB	76	48%	⭐
54%	26	Curveball	111	20%	⭐⭐
64%	17	Changeup	44	19%
64%	55	Slider	59	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

53%

Fastball

48%

⭐⭐

44%

Breaking

108

33%

⭐

18%

Offspeed

19%

------------------

49%

Four-Seam FB

48%

⭐

54%

Curveball

111

20%

⭐⭐

64%

Changeup

19%

64%

Slider

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
78%	69	Bottom of zone	125	12%	⭐
80%	-47	Away / Arm Side	125	11%	⭐⭐
78%	4	Top of zone	92	7%	⭐⭐
79%	93	In / Glove Side	85	6%
87%	6	Middle	91	3%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

78%

Bottom of zone

125

12%

⭐

80%

-47

Away / Arm Side

125

11%

⭐⭐

78%

Top of zone

⭐⭐

79%

In / Glove Side

87%

Middle

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
55%	44	Below the zone	78	48%
31%	24	Away / Arm Side	13	31%
68%	60	In / Glove Side	124	26%	⭐⭐
34%	-12	Above the zone	49	19%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

55%

Below the zone

48%

31%

Away / Arm Side

31%

68%

In / Glove Side

124

26%

⭐⭐

34%

-12

Above the zone

19%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
64%	39	Batter Ahead	67	32%
65%	45	2 Strikes	119	29%	⭐⭐
61%	31	Batter Behind	125	26%	⭐⭐
40%	1	First Pitch	101	24%	⭐⭐
67%	52	3 Balls	76	12%
73%	58	Full Count	80	7%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

64%

Batter Ahead

32%

65%

2 Strikes

119

29%

⭐⭐

61%

Batter Behind

125

26%

⭐⭐

40%

First Pitch

101

24%

⭐⭐

67%

3 Balls

12%

73%

Full Count