Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jose Abreu

matchup for Corbin Burnes

out of 436 (Worst %)

Corbin Burnes

matchup for Jose Abreu

463rd out of 567 (Worst 19%)

Strong advantage for Burnes

Jose Abreu has a 27.1% chance of reaching base vs Corbin Burnes, which is 2.5% lower than Abreu's typical expectations, and 2.7% lower than batters facing Burnes.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	27.1%	19.6%	1.5%	3.6%	14.4%	7.5%	25.0%
Abreu	-2.5	-2.4	-0.4	-0.9	-1.1	-0.1	-0.2
Burnes	-2.7	-2.3	-0.8	-0.8	-0.7	-0.4	+1.9

Jose Abreu is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Corbin Burnes is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Abreu has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Corbin Burnes throws a Cutter 52% of the time. Jose Abreu has an A grade against right-handed Cutters

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Cutter (R)

52%

Curve (R)

19%

Slider (R)

10%

Changeup (R)

10%

Sinker (R)

24% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Jose Abreu has a C- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 24%

+4%

Weak Challenge 10%

+2%

Chaser 8%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

-1%

Mid Challenge 10%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

Meatball 2%

-4%

47% of Corbin Burnes's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 23% higher than the MLB average. Jose Abreu has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 47%

+23%

Fast Velo 36%

+21%

Small Break 31%

+20%

12.8% of Jose Abreu's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Corbin Burnes strikes out 17.4% of the batters he faces, which is 3.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.0% +3.2% 5%

Walk -1.8% -1.6% 38%

In Play +4.8% -1.6% 39%

On Base +0.1% -3.4% 31%

Hit +1.9% -1.8% 14%

Single +0.1% -0.7% 13%

2B / 3B +0.4% -0.2% 3%

Home Run +1.4% -0.8%

35.4% of Jose Abreu's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Corbin Burnes induces Standard Grounders at a 40.0% rate, which is 5.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% +5.5% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.1% +0.9% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.2% -1.1% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.4% -1.4% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% -0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.9% -2.7% 3%

Pop up -1.4% 0.0%

34.5% of Jose Abreu's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 10.2% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.1% +2.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.1% +0.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% +2.9% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.8% -4.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +10.2% -0.6%

10.8% of Jose Abreu's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. 10.1% of batted balls allowed by Corbin Burnes are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% +2.4% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.8% +0.9% 8%

1 to 6° +1.4% +2.4% 18%

7 to 18° -0.4% -1.5% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.7% -1.3% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +2.2%

Jose Abreu has 3 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	2	0	0	2	0	0	0.667
Expected From Contact →			1.72	0.00	0.01	1.70			0.572

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-05-22	Flyout				99%
2023-05-22	Single			80%	19%
2023-05-22	Single			90%	10%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe