Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jose Abreu

matchup for Joe Ryan

out of 436 (Worst %)

Joe Ryan

matchup for Jose Abreu

477th out of 567 (Worst 16%)

Strong advantage for Ryan

Jose Abreu has a 25.2% chance of reaching base vs Joe Ryan, which is 4.5% lower than Abreu's typical expectations, and 1.7% lower than batters facing Ryan.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	25.2%	19.7%	2.0%	4.9%	12.8%	5.4%	28.1%
Abreu	-4.5	-2.3	+0.1	+0.4	-2.8	-2.2	+3.0
Ryan	-1.7	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4	+0.4	-1.2	-0.9

Jose Abreu is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Joe Ryan is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Abreu has a C- grade vs this particular release point.

Joe Ryan throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Jose Abreu has a D+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Slider (R)

19%

Splitter (R)

16%

9% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jose Abreu has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+3%

Mid Challenge 13%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 17%

-2%

Weak Challenge 5%

-3%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

49% of Joe Ryan's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Jose Abreu has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 49%

+28%

Low Ride 39%

+16%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Offspeed (R) 20%

+9%

12.8% of Jose Abreu's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.0% lower than the league average. Joe Ryan strikes out 16.9% of the batters he faces, which is 4.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.0% +4.7% 5%

Walk -1.8% -3.3% 38%

In Play +4.8% -1.4% 39%

On Base +0.1% -8.0% 31%

Hit +1.9% -4.7% 14%

Single +0.1% -2.9% 13%

2B / 3B +0.4% -2.7% 3%

Home Run +1.4% +0.9%

35.4% of Jose Abreu's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.0% higher than the league average. Joe Ryan induces Standard Grounders at a 33.7% rate, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.5% -0.7% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.0% -0.7% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.1% -2.8% 14%

Low Screamer -0.8% -0.4% 9%

Rising Liner +0.2% -2.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.4% -0.1% 3%

Likely Homer +0.5% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter +0.5% +0.8% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.9% +3.1% 3%

Pop up -1.4% +4.0%

34.5% of Jose Abreu's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 10.2% higher than the league average. 23.2% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -4.1% +5.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.1% -1.1% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% -0.4% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.8% -2.7% 24%

Above 100 mph +10.2% -1.1%

10.8% of Jose Abreu's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.7% lower than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Joe Ryan are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -0.4% -1.8% 12%

-10 to 0° +2.8% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.4% -2.3% 18%

7 to 18° -0.4% -1.2% 15%

19 to 28° -0.7% -1.8% 11%

29 to 38° -0.7% +0.4% 7%

39 to 50° -0.6% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° -1.5% +6.7%

Jose Abreu has 10 plate appearances against Joe Ryan in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 9 with a home run, a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	10	9	2	1	1	0	4	1	0.222
Expected From Contact →			1.70	0.70	0.84	0.17			0.189

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-06-01	Strikeout
2024-06-01	Home Run	67%	13%		20%
2023-10-11	Pop Out				100%
2023-05-30	Sac Fly	3%	26%		70%
2023-05-30	Walk
2023-04-08	Strikeout
2023-04-08	Strikeout
2023-04-08	Strikeout
2022-07-06	Double		44%	15%	40%
2022-07-06	Pop Out				100%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe