Matchup Machine

Bryce Harper

Worst 2% of matchups for Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider

Worst 25% of matchups for Bryce Harper

Strong advantage for Harper

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.1%	4.7%	13.2%	10.8%	28.5%
MLB (+/-)	+1.3	+0.4	-0.7	+1.1	+3.2
Harper	-0.1	+0.1	-1.7	+0.5	+4.3
Strider	+1.5	+0.3	+1.1	+1.4	-3.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.1%

4.7%

13.2%

10.8%

28.5%

MLB (+/-)

+1.3

+0.4

-0.7

+1.1

+3.2

Harper

-0.1

+0.1

-1.7

+0.5

+4.3

Strider

+1.5

+0.3

+1.1

+1.4

-3.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	16	3	1	0	2	6	1	.188
Expected From Contact →			4.06	0.80	0.54	2.72			.254

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Double Play
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Home Run	80%	14%	2%	4%
2023-09-13	Groundout		2%	43%	55%
2023-09-13	Walk
2023-09-13	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Single		3%	89%	8%
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-06-20	Single		6%	86%	8%
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Flyout		28%	25%	47%
2023-05-28	Flyout				100%
2022-10-14	Strikeout
2022-09-18	Strikeout
2022-09-18	Groundout			11%	89%
2022-09-18	Flyout				100%
2022-05-25	Groundout			16%	84%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	54%	106	LHB vs RHP	120	54%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

54%

106

LHB vs RHP

120

54%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	105	Fastball	125	59%
	40%	91	Breaking	78	34%
⭐	17%	115	Offspeed	69	7%
			------------------
	46%	104	Four-Seam FB	125	59%
	65%	61	Slider	90	34%
⭐	57%	121	Changeup	66	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

105

Fastball

125

59%

40%

Breaking

34%

⭐

17%

115

Offspeed

------------------

46%

104

Four-Seam FB

125

59%

65%

Slider

34%

⭐

57%

121

Changeup

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
86%	88	Top of zone	125	12%
78%	122	Away / Arm Side	125	12%
76%	103	Bottom of zone	93	12%
71%	90	In / Glove Side	100	10%
91%	64	Middle	75	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

86%

Top of zone

125

12%

78%

122

Away / Arm Side

125

12%

76%

103

Bottom of zone

12%

71%

In / Glove Side

100

10%

91%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
50%	97	Below the zone	78	36%
37%	102	Away / Arm Side	112	27%
42%	65	In / Glove Side	100	24%
36%	47	Above the zone	125	23%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

50%

Below the zone

36%

37%

102

Away / Arm Side

112

27%

42%

In / Glove Side

100

24%

36%

Above the zone

125

23%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
58%	86	Batter Behind	113	35%
63%	90	2 Strikes	100	34%
52%	104	First Pitch	125	24%
47%	103	Batter Ahead	119	23%
51%	102	3 Balls	96	7%
68%	94	Full Count	90	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

58%

Batter Behind

113

35%

63%

2 Strikes

100

34%

52%

104

First Pitch

125

24%

47%

103

Batter Ahead

119

23%

51%

102

3 Balls

68%

Full Count