matchup for Aaron Civale
matchup for Bryce Harper
6
Bryce Harper has a 31.1% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Civale, which is 2.6% lower than Harper's typical expectations, and 1.6% higher than batters facing Civale.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 31.1% | 21.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 20.2% |
| Harper | -2.6 | -1.0 | +0.7 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -1.7 | -5.3 |
| Civale | +1.6 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +0.6 | -1.8 | +1.4 | -1.2 |
Bryce Harper is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Aaron Civale is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Harper has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Aaron Civale throws a Cutter 32% of the time. Bryce Harper has an A+ grade against right-handed Cutters
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
Cutter (R)
32%
Sinker (R)
21%
Curve (R)
20%
4-Seam (R)
11%
Slider (R)
10%
21% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Bryce Harper has a C grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Likely Ball
21%
+2%
Chaser
7%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
5%
0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Meatball
6%
0%
Mid Challenge
10%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
20% of Aaron Civale's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. Bryce Harper has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Extreme Drop
20%
+15%
Medium Break
24%
+15%
Extreme Slow Velo
16%
+11%
Fastball (R)
64%
+10%
13.8% of Bryce Harper's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale strikes out 16.0% of the batters he faces, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
15%
Strikeout
-1.3%
+0.4%
3%
Walk
+2.1%
-1.3%
40%
In Play
-0.7%
+1.0%
39%
On Base
+2.8%
-0.9%
31%
Hit
+0.8%
+0.5%
14%
Single
-0.5%
0.0%
13%
2B / 3B
-0.6%
+0.3%
3%
Home Run
+1.9%
+0.1%
32.6% of Bryce Harper's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Aaron Civale induces Standard Grounders at a 34.5% rate, which is 0.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
+0.3%
-0.1%
34%
Standard Grounder
-1.8%
+0.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
0.0%
-0.7%
14%
Low Screamer
-1.9%
-1.3%
9%
Rising Liner
+1.6%
+1.8%
4%
Maybe Homer
+0.9%
-1.1%
3%
Likely Homer
+2.4%
+0.2%
1%
No Doubter
+1.2%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
-1.5%
-0.7%
3%
Pop up
-1.2%
+1.8%
32.7% of Bryce Harper's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.4% higher than the league average. 25.0% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-1.9%
+0.4%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-0.4%
+1.9%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-3.5%
+0.0%
19%
94 to 99 mph
-2.6%
-3.0%
24%
Above 100 mph
+8.4%
+0.7%
11.3% of Bryce Harper's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 11.7% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Civale are hit at this angle, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-1.4%
-0.8%
12%
-10 to 0°
+0.7%
-0.4%
8%
1 to 6°
+0.1%
+0.7%
18%
7 to 18°
+0.3%
-1.1%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.0%
+0.4%
11%
29 to 38°
-0.1%
+0.2%
7%
39 to 50°
+1.0%
-0.2%
8%
Above 50°
-1.6%
+1.2%
Bryce Harper has 3 plate appearances against Aaron Civale in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 3.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.67 | 0.244 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-09-16 | Single | 4% | 29% | 67% | |
| 2024-09-16 | Single | 2% | 38% | 60% | |
| 2024-09-16 | Pickoff Caught Stealing 2B | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
