Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Bryce Harper

matchup for Jon Gray

424th out of 436 (Worst 3%)

Jon Gray

matchup for Bryce Harper

58th out of 567 (Best 11%)

Extreme advantage for Harper

Bryce Harper has a 37.4% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 2.7% higher than Harper's typical expectations, and 4.4% higher than batters facing Gray.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	37.4%	27.7%	4.4%	7.3%	16.0%	9.7%	16.9%
Harper	+2.7	+5.0	+0.4	+1.4	+3.3	-2.3	-8.3
Gray	+4.4	+1.3	+1.3	+1.5	-1.5	+3.1	-0.1

Bryce Harper is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Harper has an A+ grade vs this particular release point.

Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Bryce Harper has an A grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

47%

Slider (R)

38%

Changeup (R)

Curve (R)

11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Bryce Harper has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Weak Challenge 11%

+3%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 6%

Chaser 6%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

Non-Competitive 11%

-2%

41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Bryce Harper has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Low Ride 41%

+17%

Large Break 35%

+14%

Breaking (R) 44%

+14%

Medium Slow Velo 25%

+12%

13.8% of Bryce Harper's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 1.3% lower than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -1.3% +3.8% 3%

Walk +2.1% -1.2% 40%

In Play -0.7% -2.6% 39%

On Base +2.8% -0.6% 31%

Hit +0.8% +0.6% 14%

Single -0.5% +0.8% 13%

2B / 3B -0.6% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +1.9% -0.6%

32.6% of Bryce Harper's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.8% lower than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.3% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -1.8% +0.2% 7%

Hard Grounder 0.0% +0.0% 14%

Low Screamer -1.9% -0.3% 9%

Rising Liner +1.6% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.9% -1.5% 3%

Likely Homer +2.4% -0.5% 1%

No Doubter +1.2% -0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -1.5% +1.0% 3%

Pop up -1.2% +0.4%

32.7% of Bryce Harper's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 8.4% higher than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.9% -0.3% 21%

75 to 86 mph -0.4% -2.3% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.5% +0.0% 19%

94 to 99 mph -2.6% +0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +8.4% +2.4%

11.3% of Bryce Harper's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.1% lower than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -1.4% +1.0% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.7% -1.5% 8%

1 to 6° +0.1% +0.4% 18%

7 to 18° +0.3% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° +1.0% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° -0.1% -1.9% 7%

39 to 50° +1.0% +0.8% 8%

Above 50° -1.6% -0.6%

Bryce Harper has 7 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 5 with a double and 2 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	5	2	0	1	1	1	2	0.400
Expected From Contact →			1.82	0.10	0.80	0.91			0.364

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-05-21	Double	9%	76%	4%	12%
2024-05-21	Walk
2022-06-22	Flyout	2%	3%		96%
2022-06-22	Walk
2022-06-22	Single			87%	12%
2022-05-03	Strikeout
2022-05-03	Flyout		1%		99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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