Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Rafael Ortega

matchup for Aaron Nola

out of 436 (Worst %)

Aaron Nola

matchup for Rafael Ortega

381st out of 564 (Worst 33%)

Moderate advantage for Nola

Rafael Ortega has a 29.8% chance of reaching base vs Aaron Nola, which is 1.8% lower than Ortega's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Nola.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.8%	20.3%	2.1%	5.4%	12.8%	9.5%	30.3%
Ortega	-1.8	+0.9	+0.4	+1.0	-0.5	-2.7	+5.2
Nola	+0.4	-2.1	-0.9	-0.9	-0.3	+2.4	-0.6

Rafael Ortega is better vs right-handed pitching. Aaron Nola is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Ortega has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Aaron Nola throws a Kn-Curve 30% of the time. Rafael Ortega hasn't faced this pitch from right handers very often

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

Kn-Curve (R)

30%

4-Seam (R)

30%

Sinker (R)

20%

Changeup (R)

12%

Cutter (R)

8% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Chasers, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Ortega has an F grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Chaser 8%

+2%

Edge Painter 19%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Mid Challenge 12%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

+0%

Weak Challenge 8%

Likely Ball 19%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-4%

26% of Aaron Nola's pitches are classified as Extreme Drop, which is 21% higher than the MLB average. Rafael Ortega has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Extreme Drop 26%

+21%

Extreme Slow Velo 23%

+18%

Large Break 22%

+18%

13.2% of Rafael Ortega's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.3% lower than the league average. Aaron Nola strikes out 20.3% of the batters he faces, which is 6.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -2.3% +6.3% 2%

Walk +4.5% -2.8% 40%

In Play -2.1% -3.5% 39%

On Base +4.5% -4.8% 31%

Hit +0.1% -2.0% 14%

Single +0.4% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.8% -0.7% 3%

Home Run -1.1% -0.5%

36.0% of Rafael Ortega's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 1.6% higher than the league average. Aaron Nola induces Standard Grounders at a 37.3% rate, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt +0.7% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder +1.6% +2.9% 7%

Hard Grounder -0.9% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer +7.6% -1.6% 9%

Rising Liner -1.7% +0.5% 4%

Maybe Homer -2.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer -1.8% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter +0.0% +0.1% 20%

Routine Flyout -3.0% -0.4% 3%

Pop up -0.3% -0.7%

14.2% of Rafael Ortega's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 10.1% lower than the league average. 23.6% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +4.7% +0.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +6.8% -0.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% +2.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.8% -1.9% 24%

Above 100 mph -10.1% -0.7%

15.2% of Rafael Ortega's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.7% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Aaron Nola are hit at this angle, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%