Matchup Machine

Marcell Ozuna

Worst 12% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 30% of matchups for Marcell Ozuna

Extreme advantage for Ozuna

Model Prediction
Prediction	5.0%	4.5%	14.0%	7.5%	14.8%
MLB (+/-)	+2.2	+0.3	+0.0	-2.2	-10.4
Ozuna	+0.4	-0.2	+1.7	-2.4	-8.6
Gomber	+1.7	+0.2	-2.2	-0.3	-1.5

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

5.0%

4.5%

14.0%

7.5%

14.8%

MLB (+/-)

+2.2

+0.3

+0.0

-2.2

-10.4

Ozuna

+0.4

-0.2

+1.7

-2.4

-8.6

Gomber

+1.7

+0.2

-2.2

-0.3

-1.5

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	.250
Expected From Contact →			0.72	0.00	0.10	0.62			.180

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-28	Flyout				100%
2022-06-02	Forceout			22%	78%
2022-06-02	Single		9%	40%	51%
2022-06-02	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	53%	104	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

53%

104

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	53%	125	Fastball	16	45%
	35%	53	Breaking	-26	37%
⭐	12%	61	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
⭐⭐	53%	125	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
	47%	54	Slider	-6	20%
⭐	59%	62	Changeup	0	18%
⭐	44%	63	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

53%

125

Fastball

45%

35%

Breaking

-26

37%

⭐

12%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

⭐⭐

53%

125

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

47%

Slider

-6

20%

⭐

59%

Changeup

18%

⭐

44%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	72%	105	Bottom of zone	13	13%
⭐⭐	67%	101	Top of zone	-3	12%
⭐	59%	68	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
⭐⭐	72%	99	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
	72%	40	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

72%

105

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐⭐

67%

101

Top of zone

-3

12%

⭐

59%

Away / Arm Side

11%

⭐⭐

72%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

72%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	44%	77	Below the zone	22	30%
⭐⭐	48%	103	In / Glove Side	30	24%
	30%	48	Above the zone	8	24%
⭐	30%	62	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

44%

Below the zone

30%

⭐⭐

48%

103

In / Glove Side

24%

30%

Above the zone

24%

⭐

30%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	33%	30	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	55%	91	Batter Behind	0	28%
⭐⭐	58%	125	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐⭐	62%	101	2 Strikes	-23	26%
⭐⭐	67%	125	3 Balls	2	8%
⭐	71%	69	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

33%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

55%

Batter Behind

28%

⭐⭐

58%

125

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐⭐

62%

101

2 Strikes

-23

26%

⭐⭐

67%

125

3 Balls

⭐

71%

Full Count

-9