Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Wilmer Flores

matchup for Lance Lynn

378th out of 436 (Worst 14%)

Lance Lynn

matchup for Wilmer Flores

120th out of 567 (Best 22%)

Extreme advantage for Flores

Wilmer Flores has a 32.9% chance of reaching base vs Lance Lynn, which is 0.6% higher than Flores's typical expectations, and 0.0% higher than batters facing Lynn.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	32.9%	25.6%	3.4%	6.5%	15.7%	7.3%	11.6%
Flores	+0.6	+2.8	+0.4	+1.3	+1.1	-2.2	-3.3
Lynn	+0.0	+1.5	+0.3	+0.7	+0.5	-1.5	-8.1

Wilmer Flores is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Lance Lynn is right handed with an extreme release toward the third base side. Flores has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Lance Lynn throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Wilmer Flores has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Cutter (R)

25%

Sinker (R)

16%

Curve (R)

Changeup (R)

7% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 1% higher than the MLB average. Wilmer Flores has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 7%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Chaser 7%

+0%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 13%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

85% of Lance Lynn's pitches are classified as Fastball Pitches, which is 32% higher than the MLB average. Wilmer Flores has a B+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fastball (R) 85%

+32%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Low Ride 36%

+12%

Small Break 19%

+10%

7.8% of Wilmer Flores's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 11.5% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn strikes out 15.4% of the batters he faces, which is 1.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

19%

Strikeout -11.5% +1.3% 4%

Walk +0.6% -1.6% 35%

In Play +10.9% +0.3% 39%

On Base +1.1% -2.3% 31%

Hit +0.5% -0.6% 14%

Single -0.4% -0.1% 13%

2B / 3B -0.3% -0.1% 3%

Home Run +1.3% -0.4%

29.8% of Wilmer Flores's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. Lance Lynn induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% -0.3% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.6% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder -1.1% -1.8% 14%

Low Screamer +1.2% +2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.3% -0.4% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.6% +0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.4% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout +2.9% +0.7% 3%

Pop up +1.8% +1.6%

16.7% of Wilmer Flores's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 7.7% lower than the league average. 23.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +1.2% +0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph +1.6% +1.8% 18%

87 to 93 mph +2.3% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +2.6% -1.2% 24%

Above 100 mph -7.7% -0.4%

12.7% of Wilmer Flores's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.3% higher than the league average. 10.9% of batted balls allowed by Lance Lynn are hit at this angle, which is 0.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.4% -2.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -1.3% -0.3% 8%

1 to 6° +1.1% -2.7% 18%

7 to 18° -2.1% +1.7% 15%

19 to 28° +2.2% +0.4% 11%

29 to 38° +1.3% -0.5% 7%

39 to 50° +1.3% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° +2.9% +2.4%

Wilmer Flores has 11 plate appearances against Lance Lynn in the last 3 years. He is 5 for 8 with a home run, 3 walks

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	8	5	1	0	4	0	3	0.625
Expected From Contact →			4.01	0.68	0.61	2.71			0.501

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-29	Walk
2023-09-29	Single		2%	95%	3%
2023-09-29	Home Run	68%	10%		22%
2023-09-24	Single		3%	56%	41%
2023-09-24	Single		45%	42%	12%
2023-04-06	Flyout				100%
2023-04-06	Pop Out				100%
2023-04-06	Walk
2022-07-01	Flyout				99%
2022-07-01	Walk
2022-07-01	Single			77%	22%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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