Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Anthony Rizzo

matchup for JP Sears

273rd out of 436 (Worst 38%)

JP Sears

matchup for Anthony Rizzo

202nd out of 567 (Best 36%)

Moderate advantage for Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has a 30.2% chance of reaching base vs JP Sears, which is 2.0% lower than Rizzo's typical expectations, and 0.4% higher than batters facing Sears.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.2%	23.5%	2.2%	7.2%	14.1%	6.7%	14.3%
Rizzo	-2.0	+0.8	+0.6	+1.7	-1.6	-2.8	-5.9
Sears	+0.4	+0.9	-1.4	+1.2	+1.1	-0.5	-4.1

Anthony Rizzo is slightly better vs left-handed pitching. JP Sears is left handed with an over-the-top delivery. Rizzo has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

JP Sears throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Anthony Rizzo has a C+ grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

43%

Slider (L)

33%

Changeup (L)

17%

Sinker (L)

14% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Anthony Rizzo has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+2%

Meatball 7%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

Weak Challenge 6%

-2%

40% of JP Sears's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 18% higher than the MLB average. Anthony Rizzo has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 40%

+18%

Medium Fast Velo 28%

+13%

Small Drop 23%

+10%

11.9% of Anthony Rizzo's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.5% lower than the league average. JP Sears strikes out 14.1% of the batters he faces, which is 2.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.5% -2.6% 4%

Walk +0.4% -1.1% 38%

In Play +4.1% +3.7% 39%

On Base +2.3% -2.6% 31%

Hit +1.8% -1.5% 14%

Single +1.3% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +1.9% -1.1% 3%

Home Run -1.4% +1.2%

31.1% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. JP Sears induces Standard Grounders at a 25.3% rate, which is 9.1% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.4% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.3% -9.1% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.8% +0.8% 14%

Low Screamer +2.1% -1.1% 9%

Rising Liner +0.0% -0.3% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% +3.0% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% -0.7% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% +2.0% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% +2.1% 3%

Pop up +0.6% +3.7%

23.7% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 26.9% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.6% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +2.1% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.6% -7.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.4% +2.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% -0.1% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.6% +2.6%

12.2% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 15.8% of batted balls allowed by JP Sears are hit at this angle, which is 4.3% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.6% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.6% -1.6% 8%

1 to 6° +2.0% -1.3% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% -3.0% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +0.5% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +4.3% 7%

39 to 50° +0.6% +0.4% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% +5.0%

Anthony Rizzo has 8 plate appearances against JP Sears in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 8 with 2 strikeouts.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	2	0	0	2	2	0	0.250
Expected From Contact →			1.65	0.00	0.89	0.76			0.207

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-04-22	Groundout			5%	95%
2024-04-22	Strikeout
2023-06-28	Lineout		3%	36%	61%
2023-06-28	Fielders Choice		3%	4%	93%
2023-06-28	Strikeout
2023-05-08	Single		70%	26%	4%
2023-05-08	Single		14%	4%	82%
2023-05-08	Flyout				99%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe