Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Anthony Rizzo

matchup for Jack Flaherty

192nd out of 436 (Best 45%)

Jack Flaherty

matchup for Anthony Rizzo

160th out of 567 (Best 29%)

Moderate advantage for Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has a 33.3% chance of reaching base vs Jack Flaherty, which is 1.1% higher than Rizzo's typical expectations, and 0.9% lower than batters facing Flaherty.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.3%	22.8%	2.0%	6.5%	14.4%	10.5%	19.0%
Rizzo	+1.1	+0.1	+0.4	+1.0	-1.3	+1.0	-1.2
Flaherty	-0.9	-0.4	-1.6	+1.3	-0.1	-0.5	-3.8

Anthony Rizzo is a bit worse vs right-handed pitching. Jack Flaherty is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. Rizzo has a B- grade vs this particular release point.

Jack Flaherty throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Anthony Rizzo has a B- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

44%

Slider (R)

27%

Kn-Curve (R)

18%

21% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Likely Balls, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Anthony Rizzo has a C grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Likely Ball 21%

+2%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

Mid Challenge 11%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 8%

Meatball 6%

Non-Competitive 12%

-1%

Strong Challenge 4%

-1%

45% of Jack Flaherty's pitches are classified as Breaking Pitches, which is 14% higher than the MLB average. Anthony Rizzo has a D+ grade against this type of pitch from right handers.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Breaking (R) 45%

+14%

Medium Break 20%

+11%

11.9% of Anthony Rizzo's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 4.5% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty strikes out 20.5% of the batters he faces, which is 5.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Strikeout -4.5% +5.8% 4%

Walk +0.4% -1.5% 38%

In Play +4.1% -4.3% 39%

On Base +2.3% -2.0% 31%

Hit +1.8% -0.5% 14%

Single +1.3% +0.0% 13%

2B / 3B +1.9% -0.3% 3%

Home Run -1.4% -0.2%

31.1% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Jack Flaherty induces Standard Grounders at a 36.3% rate, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.2% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.3% +1.9% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.8% -1.5% 14%

Low Screamer +2.1% +1.6% 9%

Rising Liner +0.0% +0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer +0.2% -0.3% 3%

Likely Homer +0.3% +0.1% 1%

No Doubter -0.1% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout -0.2% -1.3% 3%

Pop up +0.6% -0.8%

23.7% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.6% lower than the league average. 21.5% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.8% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -1.7% +1.6% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.6% +2.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph +1.4% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.3% -1.3% 24%

Above 100 mph -0.6% -2.8%

12.2% of Anthony Rizzo's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 12.2% of batted balls allowed by Jack Flaherty are hit at this angle, which is 0.7% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -4.6% +0.6% 12%

-10 to 0° -0.6% -1.0% 8%

1 to 6° +2.0% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° +1.4% +1.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.0% +0.2% 11%

29 to 38° +0.8% +0.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.6% -0.2% 8%

Above 50° +1.4% -1.9%

Anthony Rizzo has 6 plate appearances against Jack Flaherty in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.200
Expected From Contact →			0.69	0.00	0.02	0.68			0.139

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-10-30	Strikeout
2024-10-25	Lineout				99%
2024-10-25	Single			41%	58%
2023-07-01	Walk
2023-07-01	Groundout			2%	98%
2023-07-01	Forceout			24%	76%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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