Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jason Heyward

matchup for Bryce Miller

284th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Bryce Miller

matchup for Jason Heyward

425th out of 567 (Worst 25%)

Moderate advantage for Miller

Jason Heyward has a 29.5% chance of reaching base vs Bryce Miller, which is 0.8% lower than Heyward's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Miller.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	29.5%	21.8%	2.2%	4.2%	15.4%	7.7%	25.5%
Heyward	-0.8	-0.8	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	0.0	+3.5
Miller	+0.2	+1.3	-0.1	-0.1	+1.6	-1.1	-4.3

Jason Heyward is better vs right-handed pitching. Bryce Miller is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Heyward has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Bryce Miller throws a 4-seam fastball 49% of the time. Jason Heyward has a B+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

49%

Slider (R)

20%

Sinker (R)

13%

Splitter (R)

10%

8% of Bryce Miller's pitches are classified as Strong Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has a D- grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Strong Challenge 8%

+3%

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Edge Painter 17%

+0%

Chaser 6%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Meatball 5%

-1%

Likely Ball 18%

-2%

Non-Competitive 10%

-2%

43% of Bryce Miller's pitches are classified as Fast Velocity, which is 28% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has a B+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Fast Velo 43%

+28%

High Ride 29%

+19%

Small Break 21%

+13%

Fastball (R) 64%

+10%

12.6% of Jason Heyward's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Bryce Miller strikes out 15.5% of the batters he faces, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.3% +0.2% 5%

Walk -1.6% -2.5% 38%

In Play +4.9% +2.3% 39%

On Base -1.7% -3.2% 31%

Hit -0.1% -0.7% 14%

Single -0.2% -0.8% 13%

2B / 3B +0.0% -0.4% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.5%

34.6% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Bryce Miller induces Standard Grounders at a 30.4% rate, which is 4.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.1% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.2% -4.0% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% +2.0% 14%

Low Screamer +5.0% -2.4% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +1.4% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +0.9% 3%

Likely Homer -2.2% -1.2% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -1.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% +5.4% 3%

Pop up +0.4% -0.9%

25.1% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 25.8% of batted balls allowed by Bryce Miller are hit at above 100 mph, which is 1.5% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.2% -2.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.7% -3.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.9% -0.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.7% +5.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.8% +1.5%

11.2% of Jason Heyward's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 8.9% of batted balls allowed by Bryce Miller are hit at this angle, which is 2.5% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.2% +0.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.2% -2.6% 8%

1 to 6° +1.8% +0.2% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% +1.3% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% -1.0% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% -2.5% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% +2.4% 8%

Above 50° +0.0% +1.7%

Jason Heyward has 4 plate appearances against Bryce Miller in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 4 with 2 doubles and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	2	0	2	0	0	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			2.37	0.00	1.47	0.89			0.592

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-09-23	Flyout			3%	97%
2024-09-23	Flyout		3%	57%	40%
2023-09-16	Double		74%	7%	18%
2023-09-16	Double		70%	22%	8%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
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