Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jason Heyward

matchup for Adrian Morejon

285th out of 436 (Worst 35%)

Adrian Morejon

matchup for Jason Heyward

291st out of 567 (Worst 49%)

Leans in favor of Heyward

Jason Heyward has a 30.7% chance of reaching base vs Adrian Morejon, which is 0.4% higher than Heyward's typical expectations, and 0.2% higher than batters facing Morejon.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.7%	23.4%	2.4%	4.0%	17.0%	7.3%	20.8%
Heyward	+0.4	+0.8	+0.1	-0.6	+1.3	-0.4	-1.3
Morejon	+0.2	+1.4	0.0	-0.4	+1.8	-1.2	-4.2

Jason Heyward is worse vs left-handed pitching. Adrian Morejon is left handed with a horizontal release toward the first base side. Heyward has a D grade vs this particular release point.

Adrian Morejon throws a 4-seam fastball 43% of the time. Jason Heyward has an A grade against left-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (L)

43%

Slider (L)

21%

Sinker (L)

18%

Curve (L)

Changeup (L)

14% of Adrian Morejon's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 14%

+3%

Weak Challenge 11%

+2%

Strong Challenge 7%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Fringe Miss 13%

+1%

Chaser 6%

Likely Ball 18%

-1%

Non-Competitive 10%

-3%

Meatball 1%

-4%

39% of Adrian Morejon's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 35% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Very Fast Velo 39%

+35%

Medium Break 34%

+15%

12.6% of Jason Heyward's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Adrian Morejon strikes out 17.5% of the batters he faces, which is 1.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.3% +1.9% 5%

Walk -1.6% -0.8% 38%

In Play +4.9% -1.2% 39%

On Base -1.7% -0.4% 31%

Hit -0.1% +0.4% 14%

Single -0.2% +0.1% 13%

2B / 3B +0.0% +0.4% 3%

Home Run +0.2% -0.1%

34.6% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Adrian Morejon induces Standard Grounders at a 39.9% rate, which is 5.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% +0.6% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.2% +5.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -0.9% 14%

Low Screamer +5.0% -1.3% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% -0.7% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% +0.7% 3%

Likely Homer -2.2% -1.4% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.7% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% -0.4% 3%

Pop up +0.4% -1.2%

25.1% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Adrian Morejon are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.2% +3.5% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.7% +1.0% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.9% +1.6% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.7% -3.2% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.8% -2.9%

11.2% of Jason Heyward's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 11.8% of batted balls allowed by Adrian Morejon are hit at this angle, which is 0.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.2% +6.7% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.2% -3.5% 8%

1 to 6° +1.8% +1.0% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% -2.4% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% +4.3% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% +0.4% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% -5.0% 8%

Above 50° +0.0% -1.5%

Jason Heyward has 1 plate appearance against Adrian Morejon in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout.

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00			0.000

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-31	Strikeout

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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