Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Jason Heyward

matchup for Ryne Nelson

293rd out of 436 (Worst 33%)

Ryne Nelson

matchup for Jason Heyward

270th out of 567 (Best 48%)

Leans in favor of Heyward

Jason Heyward has a 30.2% chance of reaching base vs Ryne Nelson, which is 0.1% higher than Heyward's typical expectations, and 0.1% higher than batters facing Nelson.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	30.2%	25.1%	2.6%	5.3%	17.1%	5.1%	22.9%
Heyward	-0.1	+2.4	+0.3	+0.7	+1.4	-2.6	+0.8
Nelson	+0.1	+1.6	-0.1	+0.4	+1.3	-1.5	-3.3

Jason Heyward is better vs right-handed pitching. Ryne Nelson is right handed with an over-the-top delivery. Heyward has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Ryne Nelson throws a 4-seam fastball 56% of the time. Jason Heyward has a B+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

56%

Cutter (R)

15%

Slider (R)

11%

Changeup (R)

11%

Curve (R)

15% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 4% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has an A grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Mid Challenge 15%

+4%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Meatball 6%

+0%

Fringe Miss 12%

Likely Ball 19%

-1%

Weak Challenge 7%

-1%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

29% of Ryne Nelson's pitches are classified as High Ride, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Jason Heyward has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

High Ride 29%

+19%

Fastball (R) 72%

+18%

Small Break 25%

+16%

Fast Velo 29%

+14%

12.6% of Jason Heyward's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Ryne Nelson strikes out 13.3% of the batters he faces, which is 2.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

15%

Strikeout -3.3% -2.9% 5%

Walk -1.6% -2.2% 38%

In Play +4.9% +5.1% 39%

On Base -1.7% +0.3% 31%

Hit -0.1% +2.5% 14%

Single -0.2% +1.0% 13%

2B / 3B +0.0% +1.5% 3%

Home Run +0.2% +0.1%

34.6% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 0.2% higher than the league average. Ryne Nelson induces Standard Grounders at a 35.6% rate, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.4% -0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder +0.2% +1.2% 7%

Hard Grounder +0.7% -2.5% 14%

Low Screamer +5.0% +1.0% 9%

Rising Liner -0.9% +2.8% 4%

Maybe Homer -0.2% -1.1% 3%

Likely Homer -2.2% -1.0% 1%

No Doubter -0.2% -0.2% 20%

Routine Flyout -2.4% +0.8% 3%

Pop up +0.4% -0.5%

25.1% of Jason Heyward's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 0.8% higher than the league average. 29.1% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph +2.2% -1.2% 21%

75 to 86 mph +0.7% -2.2% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.9% +0.5% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.7% -2.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +0.8% +4.8%

11.2% of Jason Heyward's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 0.2% lower than the league average. 10.5% of batted balls allowed by Ryne Nelson are hit at this angle, which is 0.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.2% +2.5% 12%

-10 to 0° +3.2% -0.4% 8%

1 to 6° +1.8% -2.6% 18%

7 to 18° -1.2% +5.0% 15%

19 to 28° -1.7% -4.1% 11%

29 to 38° -0.2% -0.9% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% +0.6% 8%

Above 50° +0.0% -0.1%

Jason Heyward has 5 plate appearances against Ryne Nelson in the last 3 years. He is 0 for 4 with a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
Expected From Contact →			0.36	0.00	0.15	0.20			0.089

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-07-02	Groundout		7%	6%	87%
2024-07-02	Groundout		4%	10%	86%
2024-07-02	Walk
2024-05-22	Strikeout
2024-05-22	Groundout		5%	4%	91%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe