matchup for Jon Gray
matchup for Freddie Freeman
10
Freddie Freeman has a 37.0% chance of reaching base vs Jon Gray, which is 1.7% higher than Freeman's typical expectations, and 3.9% higher than batters facing Gray.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 37.0% | 30.2% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 6.8% | 10.7% |
| Freeman | +1.7 | +4.8 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +3.0 | -3.1 | -6.9 |
| Gray | +3.9 | +3.8 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +0.1 | -6.4 |
Freddie Freeman is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Jon Gray is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Freeman has an A grade vs this particular release point.
Jon Gray throws a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time. Freddie Freeman has an A+ grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
47%
Slider (R)
38%
Changeup (R)
9%
Curve (R)
6%
11% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Weak Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Freddie Freeman has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Weak Challenge
11%
+3%
Mid Challenge
12%
+1%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Fringe Miss
12%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
0%
Meatball
6%
0%
Chaser
6%
-1%
Strong Challenge
4%
-1%
Non-Competitive
11%
-2%
41% of Jon Gray's pitches are classified as Low Ride, which is 17% higher than the MLB average. Freddie Freeman has an A grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Low Ride
41%
+17%
Large Break
35%
+14%
Breaking (R)
44%
+14%
Medium Slow Velo
25%
+12%
8.7% of Freddie Freeman's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 10.0% lower than the league average. Jon Gray strikes out 17.9% of the batters he faces, which is 3.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.
18%
Strikeout
-10.0%
+3.8%
4%
Walk
+1.0%
-1.2%
36%
In Play
+8.9%
-2.6%
39%
On Base
+8.1%
-0.6%
31%
Hit
+7.1%
+0.6%
14%
Single
+2.1%
+0.8%
13%
2B / 3B
+2.7%
+0.4%
3%
Home Run
+2.2%
-0.6%
29.3% of Freddie Freeman's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 5.1% lower than the league average. Jon Gray induces Standard Grounders at a 34.7% rate, which is 0.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.4%
0.0%
34%
Standard Grounder
-5.1%
+0.2%
7%
Hard Grounder
0.0%
+0.0%
14%
Low Screamer
-2.6%
-0.3%
9%
Rising Liner
+2.6%
+0.7%
4%
Maybe Homer
+1.8%
-1.5%
3%
Likely Homer
+1.3%
-0.5%
1%
No Doubter
+0.1%
-0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+4.5%
+1.0%
3%
Pop up
-2.2%
+0.4%
28.7% of Freddie Freeman's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 4.4% higher than the league average. 26.7% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at above 100 mph, which is 2.4% higher than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-4.5%
-0.3%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-2.9%
-2.3%
18%
87 to 93 mph
+0.8%
+0.0%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+2.2%
+0.1%
24%
Above 100 mph
+4.4%
+2.4%
13.8% of Freddie Freeman's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.4% higher than the league average. 9.6% of batted balls allowed by Jon Gray are hit at this angle, which is 1.9% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
-5.1%
+1.0%
12%
-10 to 0°
-2.2%
-1.5%
8%
1 to 6°
-0.3%
+0.4%
18%
7 to 18°
+4.1%
+1.4%
15%
19 to 28°
+3.6%
+0.4%
11%
29 to 38°
+2.4%
-1.9%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.7%
+0.8%
8%
Above 50°
-3.1%
-0.6%
Freddie Freeman has 2 plate appearances against Jon Gray in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 1 with a walk
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.53 | 0.566 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-06-12 | Single | 4% | 53% | 43% | |
| 2024-06-12 | Walk | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
