matchup for Luis Severino
matchup for Travis d'Arnaud
3
Travis d'Arnaud has a 28.2% chance of reaching base vs Luis Severino, which is 2.3% lower than d'Arnaud's typical expectations, and 1.8% lower than batters facing Severino.
| Reach | Hit | HR | 2B / 3B | 1B | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | 28.2% | 20.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 25.0% |
| d'Arnaud | -2.3 | -1.4 | +0.3 | -1.5 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -4.0 |
| Severino | -1.8 | -1.1 | +0.6 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -0.7 | +1.9 |
Travis d'Arnaud is worse vs right-handed pitching. Luis Severino is right handed with a horizontal release toward the third base side. d'Arnaud has a B- grade vs this particular release point.
Luis Severino throws a 4-seam fastball 44% of the time. Travis d'Arnaud has a D grade against right-handed 4-seamers
Pitch Type
% of Arsenal
4-Seam (R)
44%
Slider (R)
27%
Changeup (R)
14%
Sinker (R)
8%
Cutter (R)
6%
14% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Mid Challenges, which is 3% higher than the MLB average. Travis d'Arnaud has a B grade against this type of pitch.
Pitch Label
% vs MLB
Mid Challenge
14%
+3%
Edge Painter
18%
+1%
Strong Challenge
6%
+1%
Fringe Miss
13%
+0%
Chaser
6%
0%
Weak Challenge
8%
0%
Likely Ball
19%
-1%
Non-Competitive
10%
-3%
Meatball
3%
-3%
27% of Luis Severino's pitches are classified as Very Fast Velocity, which is 19% higher than the MLB average. Travis d'Arnaud has a C- grade against this type of pitch.
Physical Trait
% vs MLB
Very Fast Velo
27%
+19%
Medium Break
36%
+16%
Medium Ride
24%
+10%
16.1% of Travis d'Arnaud's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. Luis Severino strikes out 16.2% of the batters he faces, which is 0.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.
13%
Strikeout
+2.5%
+0.9%
5%
Walk
-1.4%
-1.1%
40%
In Play
-1.1%
+0.2%
39%
On Base
-3.1%
-1.0%
31%
Hit
-1.6%
+0.1%
14%
Single
-1.6%
+0.2%
13%
2B / 3B
-1.4%
+0.4%
3%
Home Run
+1.3%
-0.5%
37.8% of Travis d'Arnaud's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.4% higher than the league average. Luis Severino induces Standard Grounders at a 36.5% rate, which is 2.1% higher than the typical MLB rate.
0%
Squib/Bunt
-0.2%
+0.4%
34%
Standard Grounder
+3.4%
+2.1%
7%
Hard Grounder
-1.2%
-0.4%
14%
Low Screamer
-1.6%
+3.0%
9%
Rising Liner
+0.4%
-0.6%
4%
Maybe Homer
-0.8%
-0.6%
3%
Likely Homer
-0.2%
-1.3%
1%
No Doubter
+0.0%
+0.1%
20%
Routine Flyout
+0.6%
-2.0%
3%
Pop up
-0.5%
-0.8%
28.1% of Travis d'Arnaud's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 3.8% higher than the league average. 23.7% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at above 100 mph, which is 0.6% lower than the typical MLB rate.
16%
Below 75 mph
-1.2%
+2.0%
21%
75 to 86 mph
-1.0%
+1.5%
18%
87 to 93 mph
-2.3%
-4.3%
19%
94 to 99 mph
+0.7%
+1.3%
24%
Above 100 mph
+3.8%
-0.6%
8.3% of Travis d'Arnaud's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 3.1% lower than the league average. 10.2% of batted balls allowed by Luis Severino are hit at this angle, which is 1.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.
17%
Below -10°
+2.5%
+2.4%
12%
-10 to 0°
+2.3%
+0.2%
8%
1 to 6°
-1.8%
-0.6%
18%
7 to 18°
-0.7%
+0.9%
15%
19 to 28°
+1.6%
-0.6%
11%
29 to 38°
-3.1%
-1.3%
7%
39 to 50°
+0.3%
-0.9%
8%
Above 50°
-1.1%
-0.2%
Travis d'Arnaud has 5 plate appearances against Luis Severino in the last 3 years. He is 1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts.
| PA | AB | H | HR | 2/3B | 1B | K | BB | Avg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| Expected From Contact → | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 0.174 | ||||
| Expected From Contact | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Outcome | HR | 2/3B | 1B | Out |
| 2024-09-24 | Strikeout | ||||
| 2024-09-24 | Lineout | 8% | 10% | 82% | |
| 2024-07-25 | Groundout | 2% | 97% | ||
| 2024-07-25 | Single | 65% | 34% | ||
| 2024-07-25 | Strikeout | ||||
Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.
