Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Paul Goldschmidt

matchup for Tyler Mahle

367th out of 436 (Worst 16%)

Tyler Mahle

matchup for P. Goldschmidt

out of 567 (Worst %)

Moderate advantage for Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt has a 33.6% chance of reaching base vs Tyler Mahle, which is 0.1% higher than Goldschmidt's typical expectations, and 3.3% higher than batters facing Mahle.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	33.6%	23.5%	3.4%	4.2%	15.9%	10.1%	24.3%
Goldschmidt	+0.1	-0.9	+0.4	-1.2	-0.1	+1.0	+0.6
Mahle	+3.3	+2.5	+0.0	0.0	+2.5	+0.7	-0.9

Paul Goldschmidt is worse vs right-handed pitching. Tyler Mahle is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Goldschmidt has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Tyler Mahle throws a 4-seam fastball 55% of the time. Paul Goldschmidt has a B grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

55%

Slider (R)

19%

Splitter (R)

16%

Curve (R)

9% of Tyler Mahle's pitches are classified as Meatballs, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. Paul Goldschmidt has an A+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Meatball 9%

+2%

Fringe Miss 14%

+2%

Edge Painter 18%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+1%

Chaser 6%

+0%

Mid Challenge 11%

+0%

Strong Challenge 5%

Non-Competitive 11%

-1%

Weak Challenge 4%

-4%

54% of Tyler Mahle's pitches are classified as Large Break Toward Third Base, which is 33% higher than the MLB average. Paul Goldschmidt has a C+ grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Large Break 54%

+33%

Medium Fast Velo 24%

+9%

Medium Ride 22%

+8%

15.0% of Paul Goldschmidt's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 0.7% higher than the league average. Tyler Mahle strikes out 23.6% of the batters he faces, which is 10.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

14%

Strikeout +0.7% +10.2% 5%

Walk -1.8% -1.2% 39%

In Play +1.1% -9.0% 39%

On Base +1.6% -5.6% 31%

Hit +3.4% -4.3% 14%

Single +0.2% -1.6% 13%

2B / 3B +0.7% -1.4% 3%

Home Run +2.5% -1.4%

31.1% of Paul Goldschmidt's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 3.3% lower than the league average. Tyler Mahle induces Standard Grounders at a 32.1% rate, which is 2.3% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.2% 0.0% 34%

Standard Grounder -3.3% -2.3% 7%

Hard Grounder +2.2% -2.1% 14%

Low Screamer -4.4% -0.6% 9%

Rising Liner +1.5% -0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +2.5% +1.1% 3%

Likely Homer +1.3% +0.2% 1%

No Doubter +1.1% -0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout 0.0% +3.0% 3%

Pop up -0.7% +1.2%

33.7% of Paul Goldschmidt's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 9.4% higher than the league average. 21.4% of batted balls allowed by Tyler Mahle are hit at above 100 mph, which is 3.0% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.4% -0.4% 21%

75 to 86 mph -3.9% -0.9% 18%

87 to 93 mph -2.2% +1.2% 19%

94 to 99 mph +0.0% +3.0% 24%

Above 100 mph +9.4% -3.0%

13.0% of Paul Goldschmidt's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 1.5% higher than the league average. 14.3% of batted balls allowed by Tyler Mahle are hit at this angle, which is 2.9% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -2.3% -4.2% 12%

-10 to 0° -2.1% -0.1% 8%

1 to 6° +1.9% -1.6% 18%

7 to 18° +2.0% -0.2% 15%

19 to 28° +0.4% -1.3% 11%

29 to 38° +1.5% +2.9% 7%

39 to 50° +0.3% +1.2% 8%

Above 50° -1.7% +3.5%

Paul Goldschmidt has 6 plate appearances against Tyler Mahle in the last 3 years. He is 3 for 6 with 2 home runs and

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	3	2	0	1	1	0	0.500
Expected From Contact →			2.36	1.53	0.17	0.67			0.393

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-07-24	Strikeout
2022-07-24	Home Run	73%	10%		17%
2022-07-24	Home Run	80%	5%		15%
2022-04-23	Pop Out				100%
2022-04-23	Flyout				100%
2022-04-23	Single		1%	66%	33%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine Log InSubscribe

Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

Matchup Machine
Log In Subscribe