Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

J.D. Martinez

matchup for Brandon Pfaadt

287th out of 436 (Worst 34%)

Brandon Pfaadt

matchup for J.D. Martinez

188th out of 567 (Best 34%)

Moderate advantage for Martinez

J.D. Martinez has a 35.1% chance of reaching base vs Brandon Pfaadt, which is 2.4% higher than Martinez's typical expectations, and 2.7% higher than batters facing Pfaadt.

	Reach	Hit	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	35.1%	23.9%	3.3%	5.1%	15.4%	11.2%	34.9%
Martinez	+2.4	+2.7	+0.6	+0.4	+1.7	-0.3	+3.1
Pfaadt	+2.7	-0.6	+0.2	-0.2	-0.7	+3.3	+5.8

J.D. Martinez is about the same vs right-handed pitching as he is against left. Brandon Pfaadt is right handed with a moderate release toward the third base side. Martinez has a B grade vs this particular release point.

Brandon Pfaadt throws a 4-seam fastball 38% of the time. J.D. Martinez has a C- grade against right-handed 4-seamers

Pitch Type

% of Arsenal

4-Seam (R)

38%

Slider (R)

27%

Sinker (R)

18%

Changeup (R)

12%

Curve (R)

19% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are classified as Edge Painters, which is 2% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Martinez has a D+ grade against this type of pitch.

Show pitch label key

Pitch Label

% vs MLB

Edge Painter 19%

+2%

Mid Challenge 12%

+1%

Strong Challenge 6%

+1%

Likely Ball 20%

+0%

Meatball 6%

Fringe Miss 12%

Weak Challenge 8%

Chaser 5%

-1%

Non-Competitive 9%

-3%

29% of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches are classified as Just Gravity, which is 15% higher than the MLB average. J.D. Martinez has a B grade against this type of pitch.

Physical Trait

% vs MLB

Just Gravity 29%

+15%

Medium Fast Velo 30%

+15%

Large Break 15%

+10%

17.6% of J.D. Martinez's plate appearances result in a strikeout, which is 5.0% higher than the league average. Brandon Pfaadt strikes out 16.5% of the batters he faces, which is 1.2% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

12%

Strikeout +5.0% +1.2% 3%

Walk +3.5% -2.4% 43%

In Play -8.4% +1.2% 39%

On Base +2.9% -0.1% 31%

Hit -0.6% +2.4% 14%

Single -0.7% +0.5% 13%

2B / 3B -0.4% +0.9% 3%

Home Run +0.6% +1.0%

29.8% of J.D. Martinez's batted balls are classified as Standard Grounders, which is 4.6% lower than the league average. Brandon Pfaadt induces Standard Grounders at a 32.0% rate, which is 2.4% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

Squib/Bunt -0.3% +0.5% 34%

Standard Grounder -4.6% -2.4% 7%

Hard Grounder +1.1% -0.6% 14%

Low Screamer -2.7% +2.6% 9%

Rising Liner +1.5% +0.2% 4%

Maybe Homer +3.7% -1.3% 3%

Likely Homer +2.4% +0.8% 1%

No Doubter +0.1% +0.3% 20%

Routine Flyout +0.6% +0.9% 3%

Pop up -1.7% -1.0%

36.3% of J.D. Martinez's batted balls are above 100 mph when they exit the bat, which is 12.0% higher than the league average. 29.1% of batted balls allowed by Brandon Pfaadt are hit at above 100 mph, which is 4.8% higher than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

16%

Below 75 mph -3.4% -0.9% 21%

75 to 86 mph -4.2% -5.4% 18%

87 to 93 mph -3.4% +5.7% 19%

94 to 99 mph -0.9% -4.1% 24%

Above 100 mph +12.0% +4.8%

14.0% of J.D. Martinez's batted balls exit the bat at a launch angle between 29 and 38 degrees, which is 2.5% higher than the league average. 7.7% of batted balls allowed by Brandon Pfaadt are hit at this angle, which is 3.7% lower than the typical MLB rate.

MLB Typical BP Label

17%

Below -10° -5.1% -3.6% 12%

-10 to 0° +0.5% +5.5% 8%

1 to 6° +0.1% -1.5% 18%

7 to 18° +1.1% -2.0% 15%

19 to 28° +3.4% +3.9% 11%

29 to 38° +2.5% -3.7% 7%

39 to 50° +0.2% -0.9% 8%

Above 50° -2.7% +2.4%

J.D. Martinez has 8 plate appearances against Brandon Pfaadt in the last 3 years. He is 2 for 7 with a double and a walk

	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	7	2	0	1	1	4	1	0.286
Expected From Contact →			0.83	0.40	0.10	0.32			0.118

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2024-08-27	Strikeout
2024-08-27	Single			32%	68%
2024-08-27	Walk
2024-06-02	Strikeout
2024-06-02	Strikeout
2024-06-02	Triple	40%	9%		51%
2023-10-11	Strikeout
2023-10-11	Flyout		2%		98%

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

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On the Way to the Plate

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Contact and Outcomes

History

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Model Prediction

Handedness and Release Point

Click on a grade for a detailed view

On the Way to the Plate

Click on a grade for a detailed view

Contact and Outcomes

History

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