Matchup Machine

Justin Turner

Worst 11% of matchups for Austin Gomber

Austin Gomber

Best 14% of matchups for Justin Turner

Extreme advantage for Turner

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.3%	4.4%	15.0%	7.9%	11.1%
MLB (+/-)	+1.5	+0.1	+1.0	-1.8	-14.1
Turner	+0.8	-0.2	+1.6	-1.5	-8.5
Gomber	+1.1	+0.0	-1.3	+0.0	-5.3

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.3%

4.4%

15.0%

7.9%

11.1%

MLB (+/-)

+1.5

+0.1

+1.0

-1.8

-14.1

Turner

+0.8

-0.2

+1.6

-1.5

-8.5

Gomber

+1.1

+0.0

-1.3

+0.0

-5.3

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	7	3	1	1	1	0	2	.429
Expected From Contact →			2.06	1.40	0.26	0.40			.295

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-14	Flyout	5%	2%		93%
2023-06-14	Groundout		1%	8%	91%
2023-06-14	Groundout			3%	97%
2022-10-05	Flyout				99%
2021-04-15	Double	80%	15%	4%
2021-04-15	Single		2%	25%	73%
2021-04-15	Home Run	55%	5%		40%
2021-04-04	Walk
2021-04-04	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	50%	54	RHB vs LHP	-14	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

50%

RHB vs LHP

-14

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	22	Fastball	16	45%
⭐	23%	73	Breaking	-26	37%
	6%	58	Offspeed	0	18%
			------------------
	45%	30	Four-Seam FB	-3	44%
	54%	41	Slider	-6	20%
	51%	43	Changeup	0	18%
⭐⭐	43%	92	Knuckle-Curve	-94	17%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

45%

⭐

23%

Breaking

-26

37%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

-3

44%

54%

Slider

-6

20%

51%

Changeup

18%

⭐⭐

43%

Knuckle-Curve

-94

17%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
62%	43	Bottom of zone	13	13%
68%	46	Top of zone	-3	12%
64%	2	Away / Arm Side	9	11%
65%	53	In / Glove Side	-29	10%
65%	27	Middle	-23	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

62%

Bottom of zone

13%

68%

Top of zone

-3

12%

64%

Away / Arm Side

11%

65%

In / Glove Side

-29

10%

65%

Middle

-23

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	36%	80	Below the zone	22	30%
	46%	47	In / Glove Side	30	24%
	37%	18	Above the zone	8	24%
	27%	12	Away / Arm Side	-3	22%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

36%

Below the zone

30%

46%

In / Glove Side

24%

37%

Above the zone

24%

27%

Away / Arm Side

-3

22%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	21%	15	First Pitch	10	28%
⭐⭐	55%	86	Batter Behind	0	28%
	55%	39	Batter Ahead	4	26%
⭐	64%	69	2 Strikes	-23	26%
	65%	13	3 Balls	2	8%
	74%	16	Full Count	-9	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

21%

First Pitch

28%

⭐⭐

55%

Batter Behind

28%

55%

Batter Ahead

26%

⭐

64%

2 Strikes

-23

26%

65%

3 Balls

74%

Full Count

-9