Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 4.2% higher than actual (163 runs over 450 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs3,9114,0741634%0%8%0.533.06
Hits7,2677,4001332%0%4%0.253.29
1B4,8354,846110%-3%3%0.062.51
2B/3B1,5141,581674%-1%11%0.371.38
HR918973556%14%-1%0.231.13
BB3,4363,7062708%6%10%1.312.26
K7,6377,8011642%4%1%0.282.67
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
ANAAngel Stadium14151122-29-19%-0.153.52253217-36-14%-0.853.91164140-24-15%-0.583.155142-9-17%0.291.153835-3-9%0.391.37118112-6-5%0.432.03245257125%0.003.18
BALOriole Park1715816022%1.453.3628829462%1.433.9818519495%0.583.1953641121%0.831.285036-14-28%0.281.17911364550%2.342.70290308186%0.702.81
BOSFenway Park14130123-7-5%0.232.8623624042%-0.173.49162158-4-2%-0.042.4249601123%0.021.502522-3-14%0.061.09961111516%1.862.49253252-10%1.012.27
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld161241482420%1.253.222372683113%0.454.121581731510%0.752.944756918%0.321.133239722%0.601.1112212311%1.192.1227027000%-1.082.40
CLEProgressive Field12110103-7-6%1.723.08204192-12-6%0.853.2612412954%-0.122.244942-7-15%0.201.363121-10-33%0.741.21103101-2-2%1.192.31195182-13-7%0.632.48
KCAKauffman Stadium1613313632%-0.333.29275264-11-4%-0.213.1517717921%0.382.267160-11-16%0.141.182725-2-9%-0.210.9811912455%1.101.902202563616%1.222.85
OAKOakland Coliseum151071282120%0.292.8023224083%0.383.0115215864%0.401.856454-10-16%0.411.4916281277%0.161.01127125-2-2%0.132.19276274-2-1%-0.432.54
TBATropicana Field1714914900%-0.472.98273269-4-1%0.373.36188164-24-13%0.012.4242632151%0.431.604342-1-3%0.081.0511812465%1.402.33294321279%0.823.24
TORRogers Centre141121342220%2.013.37237232-5-2%0.972.78154146-8-5%-0.272.495453-1-3%0.761.722934516%0.401.271041262221%0.942.34234244104%0.682.78
ARIChase Field1414414511%1.063.2624024883%0.793.7815615600%-0.192.82566048%0.331.402832413%0.551.251161271110%1.712.391932364323%0.292.72
CHNWrigley Field13119114-5-4%0.193.1720821242%-0.153.4314114432%-0.132.60444401%0.621.47232413%0.201.101001121212%1.472.09227213-14-6%0.542.37
COLCoors Field131241462218%-0.493.69243255125%-0.773.98173164-9-5%-1.662.9749601122%0.291.3921321151%0.551.0710099-1-1%1.162.06221199-22-10%-0.132.01
LANDodger Stadium16149147-2-1%0.372.3225225311%-0.043.05161159-2-1%0.632.245352-1-3%0.031.373842411%0.321.19137135-2-2%1.122.0928028552%0.562.72
PITPNC Park12851021720%0.352.1918619263%0.792.8012612711%-0.072.423745821%0.191.302320-3-13%0.450.94901011113%1.482.47199211126%1.132.78
MILAmerican Family Fld13131114-17-13%0.893.24219200-19-8%0.712.59151128-23-15%-0.092.163641513%0.861.503231-1-2%0.281.18120110-10-8%0.991.90224238146%-0.682.12
SEAT-Mobile Park181101564642%0.882.832242835926%0.423.341451843927%0.402.6845561124%0.121.303443927%0.431.281081453735%1.762.19365332-33-9%-1.222.56
HOUMinute Maid Park141381531511%0.463.08254244-10-4%-0.753.07163146-17-10%-0.602.79545513%0.441.433742513%0.541.1013214086%1.142.19219239209%1.562.42
DETComerica Park1613513500%-0.262.98242256146%0.413.09162172106%0.282.56515659%0.251.412928-1-2%-0.141.1111712587%1.322.02289276-13-4%-0.542.58
SFNOracle Park161161351916%1.402.57250263135%0.382.9517818242%0.452.39515547%0.571.342126523%-0.100.80971303334%1.992.182252563114%0.862.69
CINGreat American BP16151144-7-5%0.382.92255246-9-4%0.943.56164153-11-7%0.512.286053-7-11%0.541.463139826%0.221.0413514497%1.392.23273297249%0.592.67
SDNPetco Park18179160-19-11%1.043.02295292-3-1%0.493.661741952112%0.892.307060-10-15%0.241.275137-14-27%0.261.021251492419%1.662.35309304-5-2%0.582.48
PHICitizens Bank Park16144137-7-5%0.352.42258252-6-2%0.782.18177160-17-9%0.362.1346571124%0.571.52353500%0.231.111081241614%1.172.13303296-7-2%-0.913.08
SLNBusch Stadium129710255%-0.273.3719720253%-1.072.9413714253%-1.152.27384026%-0.011.412220-2-9%0.040.889790-7-7%1.012.16195181-14-7%0.512.76
NYNCiti Field171221432118%1.813.272302704018%1.312.621621832113%0.612.344150922%0.611.3827371037%0.341.20140138-2-2%1.191.9828629041%0.402.76
WASNationals Park12901011112%0.342.52202192-10-5%-0.373.49143129-14-10%-0.983.004441-3-8%0.301.501523850%0.210.99989800%1.322.2418719363%1.642.55
MINTarget Field12889467%0.543.1718218421%-0.322.81115125108%0.591.733937-2-5%0.251.042822-6-21%-0.311.118493911%1.352.04249225-24-9%-0.723.06
NYAYankee Stadium13901213135%1.372.631792183922%1.412.991241532923%1.442.653138721%0.571.202427314%-0.041.281071221514%1.692.30217227104%0.912.33
MIALoanDepot Park18186165-21-11%0.813.09317307-10-3%-0.432.94211204-7-3%-0.912.187464-10-13%0.211.443238619%0.381.09151141-10-7%1.672.99307321145%1.002.98
ATLTruist Park15144142-2-1%-0.372.42266258-8-3%0.223.20184177-7-4%-0.022.915348-5-10%0.351.192933415%-0.101.121071211413%1.452.1624224752%-1.092.46
TEXGlobe Life Field171361592317%-0.543.61251274239%-0.693.31162174128%0.192.315156510%0.051.163844615%-0.231.201241462218%0.982.10289303145%0.192.64
SDNEstadio Alfredo H.H.22635935%4.198.8638491129%2.497.972725-2-7%0.472.164117184%2.263.35713680%2.793.65161603%1.706.90313214%-4.144.69
SDNGocheok Sky Dome23320-13-38%-6.329.104435-9-20%-4.4210.723522-13-38%-6.676.6778117%0.772.81253166%1.661.662917-12-43%-4.234.233038826%3.863.86
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI30157150-7-5%0.361.89254269156%0.292.23168181138%0.331.845857-1-2%0.160.982831310%0.170.90130127-3-2%0.571.39222233115%0.121.641315.02.0+15%
ATL28151141-10-6%-0.341.88264244-20-7%-0.552.16163159-4-3%0.131.797250-22-31%-0.060.922936724%-0.030.6910911787%0.911.30252225-27-11%0.001.961915.8-3.2-16%
BAL29156133-23-15%-0.072.38256250-6-2%0.022.38155166117%0.251.735653-3-5%-0.040.924530-15-33%0.250.91901081820%0.861.54237252156%0.091.911914.9-4.1-21%
BOS30143129-14-10%0.322.36258246-12-5%0.092.21166162-4-3%0.281.89565601%0.151.013628-8-23%0.190.77124119-5-4%1.001.58296271-25-9%-0.021.751715.1-1.9-11%
CHC30149131-18-12%0.292.0723524494%-0.192.0615416174%-0.101.71515436%0.520.983029-1-4%0.090.82126125-1-1%0.871.5825926011%-0.161.841814.5-3.5-19%
CHW30831183542%1.032.102062383216%0.312.651411591813%0.461.904551614%0.400.882029943%0.250.86919877%1.041.37260270104%0.242.14612.36.3+105%
CIN30145136-9-6%0.122.12214232188%0.102.121281471915%0.031.705551-4-8%0.550.983134310%0.210.721191402118%0.521.53294277-17-6%0.042.101615.8-.2-1%
CLE29151123-28-18%0.631.9724524941%0.402.27160172128%0.231.925653-3-5%0.200.952923-6-20%0.160.7812499-25-20%0.741.68222212-10-4%1.021.801913.4-5.6-29%
COL291121402825%0.882.13238253156%0.192.11161155-6-4%0.121.885461712%0.311.0323371462%0.380.819510166%0.701.22290277-13-4%-0.331.78711.14.1+58%
DET301191331412%0.592.20229246177%0.752.11153164117%0.501.66495235%0.460.932730311%0.150.8711612265%0.791.66275262-13-5%-0.372.071716.1-.9-5%
HOU291311592821%0.452.63270265-5-2%-0.022.47185162-23-13%-0.121.8650601020%0.140.903543822%0.250.821041252120%0.411.441872152815%0.651.691015.55.5+55%
KC3013713700%0.802.34239255167%0.642.451561721610%0.171.77525536%0.360.833128-3-10%0.210.871011191818%1.041.352062332713%0.141.991715.8-1.2-7%
LAA3012813243%0.592.03247233-14-5%-0.082.07171146-25-15%-0.111.514352920%0.400.64333639%0.180.681021242222%0.841.35274294207%0.292.031114.33.3+30%
LAD31166157-9-5%-0.312.25295261-34-11%-0.352.05188163-25-13%-0.011.777157-14-20%-0.080.843642615%0.240.7214314300%0.141.4826126762%0.111.911918.5-.5-2%
MIA311101312119%1.002.112312633214%0.112.02169183148%-0.361.8439501129%0.540.862330729%0.140.84851031821%1.291.74235251167%0.382.04713.96.9+98%
MIL29149118-31-21%0.562.24260222-38-15%0.332.06174146-28-16%-0.141.495048-2-5%0.510.793628-8-22%0.280.89128119-9-7%0.591.44265264-10%0.121.851813.5-4.5-25%
MIN29132122-10-7%0.352.25230225-5-2%0.422.29136149139%0.381.796347-16-26%0.320.933129-2-5%0.030.9112012110%0.351.24271267-4-1%-0.521.831614.7-1.3-8%
NYM29128123-5-4%0.602.30236233-3-1%0.732.51164156-8-5%0.571.864044411%0.590.96323313%0.120.87113108-5-4%0.671.402122473516%0.341.991514.1-.9-6%
NYY31150163138%0.832.1325826352%0.642.37177169-8-4%0.481.7442551331%0.540.81393900%0.150.901461662014%0.771.732382753716%0.712.001916.7-2.3-12%
OAK31901223235%1.022.042082352713%0.802.031301562620%0.321.494350716%0.540.773529-6-16%0.070.861061211514%0.681.5730330741%0.132.101413.0-1.0-7%
PHI31145140-5-4%0.311.91265247-18-7%0.102.03180157-23-13%-0.111.624553818%0.090.864036-4-10%0.180.7212213198%0.551.4125626594%-0.232.232017.5-2.5-12%
PIT311161382219%0.942.2524324742%0.662.12176165-11-6%0.001.904352920%0.310.842431729%0.200.9013814575%0.981.68295292-3-1%0.301.921415.71.7+12%
SD33156153-3-2%1.062.31274284104%0.412.30186197116%0.411.55555611%0.320.853332-1-3%0.160.88122133119%0.431.49249247-2-1%0.421.871516.91.9+12%
SEA301081383028%0.541.782102342411%0.212.2414514500%-0.031.6434501646%0.260.773139827%0.290.691121352320%0.741.53311291-20-7%-0.691.851716.0-1.0-5%
SF301141362219%0.642.11238248104%0.442.4516316300%0.091.544855714%0.560.882730312%0.190.821021282626%0.731.45242262208%0.261.851416.42.4+17%
STL301071322523%0.852.062142453115%0.292.171431652215%0.051.67515101%0.120.762029947%0.120.9112412732%0.481.51258257-10%0.341.831414.4.4+2%
TB311181412320%-0.012.1425225531%-0.022.25184163-21-11%-0.091.7342571535%0.380.8726361037%0.180.82991202121%0.841.45283266-17-6%0.182.171416.52.5+17%
TEX3013913900%0.092.29253238-15-6%-0.302.04167150-17-10%-0.251.655251-1-2%-0.060.85343739%0.090.821061322624%0.731.532302673716%0.431.811614.8-1.2-7%
TOR301061464038%0.781.892212543315%0.352.231431662316%-0.051.82515437%0.220.952734724%0.190.801211401916%0.711.57224242188%0.351.821515.6.6+4%
WAS29115113-2-2%0.301.71224223-10%0.101.7714915011%-0.061.52484800%0.420.992726-1-5%0.130.82118110-8-7%0.601.39230251219%0.411.701412.1-1.9-13%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
ARI301311491814%0.752.23248262146%0.542.6015716696%0.441.87616211%0.231.073034415%0.200.80991262727%0.791.46230251219%0.112.051715-2-12.000000%
ATL281071241716%0.371.94217231147%0.622.14161156-5-3%0.151.5430461652%0.590.842630414%0.190.93901112124%0.581.462322663414%-0.271.97912336.000000%
BAL291171311412%0.822.18231242115%0.662.6215015996%0.151.964756919%0.420.953428-6-19%0.160.76861193338%0.941.4325825910%-0.082.001014441.000000%
BOS301061292322%0.152.002252462110%-0.082.02164162-2-1%0.051.7039581950%0.150.952226419%0.150.82961202425%0.881.70264276124%0.031.901314115.000000%
CHC3013513500%0.802.1524224531%0.211.9516216421%0.081.60505112%0.470.8630300-1%0.340.841151311614%0.761.41248261135%0.321.911215329.000000%
CHW30159145-14-9%0.242.05259253-6-2%0.072.4516516611%0.261.87525311%0.530.744234-8-20%0.210.71136134-2-1%0.461.58241232-9-4%-0.371.962417-6-26.000000%
CIN3012412732%0.132.04233226-7-3%0.141.87151143-8-5%0.021.675247-5-10%0.200.913035518%0.160.881131281513%0.521.43263282197%0.571.88141401.000000%
CLE291051342928%0.782.1822623152%0.192.12138149118%0.141.626251-11-18%0.220.932631521%0.240.941151362118%0.561.45283254-29-10%0.521.991015556.000000%
COL29182177-5-3%0.282.27298292-6-2%-0.182.28216188-28-13%-0.591.7948671939%0.391.023438411%0.160.80122132108%0.301.3218518721%0.241.772217-4-19.000000%
DET3011612265%0.252.09218236188%0.632.3515415621%0.561.6635511647%0.470.8329290-1%0.040.8810010888%0.721.3326526941%-0.081.88131307.000000%
HOU29150147-3-2%0.721.94252239-13-5%-0.022.20174147-27-15%-0.321.99495348%0.480.772938932%0.290.7913714586%0.861.69249259104%0.211.931913-5-29.000000%
KC30951293436%0.032.0724024552%0.032.2416316300%0.471.765554-1-1%0.130.962227525%0.080.8511112098%0.751.592242462210%0.322.05131419.000000%
LAA30167138-29-17%0.012.23249243-6-2%-0.102.24160156-4-2%0.091.585352-1-1%0.360.903634-2-4%0.190.86141127-14-10%0.041.38247263167%0.081.941915-3-17.000000%
LAD3112312854%0.832.352162372110%0.522.13142154129%0.351.884449511%0.410.823034412%0.230.86124123-10%0.851.42269290218%0.491.97121204.000000%
MIA31173149-24-14%0.401.99284263-21-7%0.041.9217517721%0.301.487853-25-33%-0.090.93313328%0.170.87152142-10-7%0.851.55268279114%0.161.952417-6-29.000000%
MIL29131128-3-2%0.792.01239234-5-2%0.932.07169156-13-8%0.301.7235461131%0.610.773532-3-9%0.150.8211911900%0.881.69236258229%0.151.691115441.000000%
MIN29123120-3-3%0.631.99240233-7-3%0.312.06160153-7-4%0.061.614450613%0.470.833630-6-16%0.060.789310078%0.691.38287274-13-5%0.051.831314110.000000%
NYM2912012887%0.412.242052332814%0.122.02144156128%0.041.38444625%0.380.7517311481%0.230.80145128-17-12%0.631.56271249-22-8%0.182.03141406.000000%
NYY311071484138%1.182.192262613515%0.662.201451732819%0.341.845452-2-3%0.300.822736932%0.310.82128138108%1.091.5726326521%0.031.911214219.000000%
OAK311301441411%-0.502.19252262104%-0.642.451581802214%-0.041.846854-14-21%-0.181.03262829%0.010.84127138119%0.031.71252245-7-3%-0.041.67171816.000000%
PHI3111812133%0.812.04225238136%0.302.2215215642%0.151.684652613%0.510.982730313%0.210.6110010999%0.761.4929229310%0.222.131113223.000000%
PIT3112713365%0.411.91239257188%0.442.111531711812%0.361.78545736%0.160.983230-2-8%0.190.90119113-6-5%0.411.27269250-19-7%0.111.871715-1-10.000000%
SD33160150-10-6%0.772.08270266-4-2%0.032.15173170-3-2%0.131.68575812%0.410.944038-2-4%0.270.7513013997%0.621.442713063513%0.441.481816-1-11.000000%
SEA30961293334%0.802.282052464120%0.372.381301633325%0.201.754550510%0.360.763034413%0.190.91841062226%0.851.51284257-27-9%-0.142.12131418.000000%
SF30137123-14-10%0.461.92256241-15-6%0.032.14174166-8-5%-0.201.705448-6-11%0.030.812827-1-3%0.140.841001141414%1.091.542262482210%0.231.931613-2-15.000000%
STL3013413732%0.191.8425925900%-0.402.0317217311%-0.041.88505448%-0.140.953732-5-13%0.120.8810210865%0.961.57255220-35-14%0.121.9616150-3.000000%
TB31153132-21-14%0.472.23269244-25-9%0.502.19182152-30-17%0.141.674754714%0.410.874038-2-4%0.210.91112109-3-3%0.881.34271293228%0.121.701714-2-14.000000%
TEX301251421714%0.802.442102453517%0.462.281351541914%0.321.7443531022%0.450.733238619%0.240.8212812800%0.631.4426426400%0.211.75141519.000000%
TOR3013313964%1.272.57260249-11-4%0.762.38165157-8-5%0.231.55555611%0.490.914036-4-11%0.310.781121231110%1.031.552392733414%0.332.0015140-4.000000%
WAS29127137108%0.122.10274241-33-12%-0.362.28191159-32-17%-0.401.816350-13-21%0.340.9420311157%0.090.751001323232%0.771.4823123431%0.331.611516113.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif