Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 0% higher than actual (11 runs over 2,464 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs22,49022,501110%-2%2%0.453.06
Hits41,41641,012-404-1%-1%-1%0.153.28
1B26,40525,728-677-3%-3%-2%-0.012.50
2B/3B9,0449,3082643%3%3%0.361.38
HR5,9675,977100%0%0%0.191.10
BB18,68118,230-451-2%-4%-1%1.192.18
K42,47542,7602851%0%1%0.212.63
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
HOUMinute Maid Park8779780251%-0.113.1514751415-60-4%-0.653.07943853-90-10%-0.652.7531732251%0.451.442152412612%0.550.93668656-12-2%1.162.1914581537795%1.292.4
OAKOakland Coliseum81707650-57-8%-0.242.812801253-27-2%0.273.01801790-11-1%0.521.74304303-10%0.521.47175160-15-9%0.111.01715592-123-17%-0.092.0914431414-29-2%-0.472.6
CLEProgressive Field8162974611719%1.983.2613301385554%0.933.66878869-9-1%-0.132.19324335113%0.261.431281815341%0.911.21585571-14-2%1.22.4212641339756%0.72.36
MINTarget Field85737730-7-1%0.583.2713701383131%-0.323.08825869445%0.521.7332332741%0.331.04222187-35-16%-0.311.16643611-32-5%1.161.9817021610-92-5%-0.542.73
PHICitizens Bank Park89800853537%0.352.2614621506443%0.782.16895915202%0.482.12328339113%0.511.65239253146%0.251.11635660254%1.152.0116341613-21-1%-0.913.11
ATLTruist Park83853793-60-7%-0.412.414621409-53-4%0.223.16920890-30-3%-0.272.63287308217%0.41.17255211-44-17%-0.351.07616628122%1.182.1514881420-68-5%-1.142.38
CINGreat American BP81791816253%0.58313731404312%0.813.45843841-20%0.352.432873233613%0.711.59243239-4-2%0.091.03680629-51-7%1.22.3214321451191%0.52.73
ARIChase Field88778843658%1.033.2615031518151%0.73.9957937-20-2%-0.192.8737238082%0.311.411742022816%0.51.24644665213%1.632.314431441-20%0.042.65
DETComerica Park81729706-23-3%-0.322.9813381351131%0.412.99878900222%0.23283294114%0.211.41177157-20-11%-0.141.13571581102%1.151.9714121368-44-3%-0.592.45
TBATropicana Field83753723-30-4%-0.453.031326132600%0.273.6280781361%0.212.64316307-9-3%0.291.620320631%0.060.8657357410%1.141.831561156540%-0.283.48
KCAKauffman Stadium81810752-58-7%-0.583.3114661432-34-2%-0.213.2993994781%0.382.08341327-14-4%0.181.4186159-27-15%-0.241617571-46-8%11.9512651323585%1.082.95
SEAT-Mobile Park81662650-12-2%0.222.8312401217-23-2%-0.393.31791762-29-4%0.22.6263253-10-4%0.011.22186202169%0.431.26584560-24-4%1.262.1415801466-114-7%-1.212.45
SLNBusch Stadium79781689-92-12%-0.633.0614681287-181-12%-1.323.31963836-127-13%-1.722.48315278-37-12%-0.261.47190173-17-9%0.040.82611587-24-4%1.012.2712181235171%0.632.82
MILAmerican Family Fld82693733406%1.23.2212611284232%0.92.53804780-24-3%0.182.132602903012%0.81.44197213168%0.321.0163964671%0.991.915111417-94-6%-1.072.2
SDNPetco Park796306996911%1.283.261230123550%0.863.94793774-19-2%0.452.5526726811%0.421.191701932313%0.560.99659632-27-4%1.552.1913321407756%0.682.41
BOSFenway Park80811764-47-6%0.172.8815151426-89-6%-0.743.49944893-51-5%-0.042.33384363-21-6%-0.151.41187170-17-9%-0.011.12616593-23-4%1.612.4213411392514%1.052.22
WASNationals Park80780746-34-4%0.052.6914801415-65-4%-0.373.55996914-82-8%-0.953.06292317258%0.511.5192184-8-4%0.051586555-31-5%1.272.121100124414413%1.692.62
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld81719738193%1.23.1113541348-60%0.053.94907870-37-4%0.092.83256267114%0.281.121912112010%0.61.13612585-27-4%1.262.2614861387-99-7%-1.272.35
BALOriole Park837147968211%1.593.2813721448766%1.293.81909925162%0.413.192863173111%0.831.31772062916%0.41.165436096612%1.752.5813711416453%0.633.11
SD Estadio Alfredo H.H.23731-6-15%-2.8211.314944-5-10%-2.437.97212214%0.470.471310-3-24%-1.393.191512-3-18%-1.345.092015-5-24%-0.367.364736-11-24%-5.535.53
COLCoors Field80937879-58-6%-0.653.6116161510-106-7%-1.534.011013903-110-11%-1.442.91396374-22-6%0.311.522072332613%0.51.05600574-26-4%1.272.221292129310%0.221.95
SFNOracle Park81632669376%1.322.6213061345393%0.563.0788389291%0.752.052603064618%0.571.36163147-16-10%-0.130.865085645611%1.891.9913531415625%0.612.38
TEXGlobe Life Field87927785-142-15%-1.133.6115431424-119-8%-0.873.25941915-26-3%0.032.1327285-42-13%01.13275223-52-19%-0.481.19675629-46-7%0.711.9814751474-10%0.152.55
PITPNC Park81744757132%-0.092.1913551374191%0.912.86876852-24-3%-0.082.43336348124%0.191.321431743122%0.460.97655647-8-1%1.482.4313491427786%1.092.94
NYAYankee Stadium81673732599%1.252.6212321299675%1.062.74756807517%1.342.642452692410%0.541.28231222-9-4%-0.091.29592622305%1.631.9714091463544%0.922.44
ANAAngel Stadium81769731-38-5%-0.123.7613431300-43-3%-0.264.03861807-54-6%-0.363.4255276218%0.311.12227216-11-5%0.311.41681602-79-12%0.382.2115421503-39-3%-0.272.73
TORRogers Centre8166576610115%2.013.3713071366595%0.972.73832816-16-2%-0.272.782913394816%0.941.721842122815%0.411.17640610-30-5%0.612.3114261459332%0.673.07
MIALoanDepot Park81696710142%1.113.114131336-77-5%-0.473.13934845-89-10%-1.012.2231231752%0.251.4416717474%0.351.05554578244%1.662.913621427655%0.962.66
LANDodger Stadium83754769152%0.683.0313191364453%-0.043.38791837466%0.632.25284298145%0.031.51244230-14-6%0.21.27650608-42-6%0.851.9914151449342%0.472.73
CHNWrigley Field81787726-61-8%0.293.2913911320-71-5%-0.263.42903841-62-7%-0.072.7729029773%0.641.48198182-16-8%0.131.1602641396%1.42.111384139170%0.672.55
NYNCiti Field79681704233%1.613.2712211269484%0.922.45789800111%0.082.222272663917%0.61.33205202-3-1%0.211.17692626-66-10%1.22.031363136410%0.342.61
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
MIA1636537408713%1.052.114281393-35-2%-0.142.01980894-86-9%-0.641.922823183613%0.550.86166181159%0.140.845005666613%1.341.7512941336423%0.382.038483.8-0.20.000000%
KC162668723558%0.772.2313241375514%0.642.63859880212%0.141.77302315134%0.520.911631801711%0.230.89494532388%1.071.3813961406101%-0.251.995674.218.232.000000%
OAK1615736356211%0.992.0511791233545%0.632.11766782162%0.271.352452823715%0.560.8216816911%0.120.87588560-28-5%0.471.4614871511242%0.252.064969.520.542.000000%
ATL165939844-95-10%-0.381.8815641441-123-8%-0.612.11938883-55-6%0.121.7831732141%0.050.88309237-72-23%-0.330.7636648122%0.871.2913171339222%0.151.9110392.4-10.6-10.000000%
MIL163722739172%0.572.2513031296-7-1%0.521.9863800-63-7%0.161.45275292176%0.520.811652043923%0.330.9166567161%0.581.4314231439161%0.171.99283.4-8.6-9.000000%
MIN168787751-36-5%0.442.313721367-50%0.552.383784691%0.381.8295314196%0.430.87240207-33-14%0.020.92731627-104-14%0.171.217271586-141-8%-0.561.749086.8-3.2-4.000000%
TEX179971847-124-13%0.022.2916191482-137-8%-0.322.15980923-57-6%-0.21.59376323-53-14%-0.150.88263236-27-10%0.070.76745708-37-5%0.611.5315641522-42-3%0.041.8410394.4-8.6-8.000000%
NYY1626637397612%0.832.13120613091039%0.662.22751810598%0.581.742362875122%0.550.76219213-6-3%0.120.8962263191%0.721.6714271472453%0.582.028282.40.40.000000%
LAA162733724-9-1%0.662.113461291-55-4%-0.212.09841791-50-6%0.111.5527428172%0.390.64231220-11-5%0.210.72624594-30-5%0.741.315241547232%0.2927380.17.110.000000%
DET1626537287511%0.692.2312941361675%0.812.11855883283%0.481.752743053111%0.490.9816517385%0.150.88567598316%0.821.7114731396-77-5%-0.472.117880.92.94.000000%
STL160708721132%0.732.1113571313-44-3%-0.092.03874829-45-5%-0.121.68274292186%0.120.77209193-16-8%0.10.89650599-51-8%0.311.5313081343353%0.361.837076.36.39.000000%
BOS161764763-10%0.352.3514321399-33-2%0.152.14895876-19-2%0.261.74357340-17-5%0.090.9618018221%0.20.76570615458%11.51372137310%0.191.727784.17.19.000000%
HOU173877808-69-8%-0.012.5315391475-64-4%-0.022.26980916-64-7%-0.081.82317337206%0.20.88242222-20-8%0.230.9683608-75-11%0.291.4313251391665%0.541.79689.6-6.5-7.000000%
CIN162769746-23-3%0.112.0913721344-28-2%0.12.1869828-41-5%-0.11.6630531272%0.570.9819820463%0.240.73656606-50-8%0.51.4715001488-12-1%0.162.048277.1-4.9-6.000000%
TB164852733-119-14%-0.152.214491337-112-8%-0.262.34911831-80-9%0.081.74308305-3-1%0.10.9230202-28-12%0.140.83617592-25-4%0.631.3814381509715%0.42.189986.3-12.7-13.000000%
CLE162652710589%1.041.9713781392141%0.42.38932925-7-1%0.191.99322315-7-2%0.20.961241522822%0.410.86566541-25-4%0.721.631142127313112%1.031.747678.82.84.000000%
NYM160712724122%0.582.4112671332655%0.832.5812846344%0.571.852402894920%0.610.92215197-18-8%0.090.91641588-53-8%0.671.31313132071%0.221.987478.44.46.000000%
SD162745765203%12.413171332151%0.372.2382382961%0.371.4928929783%0.30.8520520611%0.20.87726663-63-9%0.371.513111395846%0.521.88828756.000000%
WAS161683693101%0.261.713931384-9-1%0.191.77938908-30-3%0.051.4830431172%0.40.991511661510%0.160.87506496-10-2%0.631.4114412501069%0.471.747069.1-0.9-1.000000%
ARI179817834172%0.331.8815051539342%0.132.17974985111%0.231.84344358144%0.221.0218719695%0.170.93671660-11-2%0.521.4514041419151%0.041.579489.5-4.5-5.000000%
BAL165809785-24-3%-0.022.4414251413-12-1%0.422.39896890-6-1%0.31.76343314-29-9%-0.051.061862092313%0.320.9580612325%0.791.5313931384-9-1%0.051.9810186-15-15.000000%
TOR164734783497%0.561.8614391427-12-1%0.182.1939890-49-5%-0.181.78312338268%0.190.99188198106%0.20.84639606-33-5%0.591.5213221356343%0.271.828984.2-4.8-5.000000%
PHI174845843-20%0.331.9415171471-46-3%0.12.1929887-42-5%0.091.69345340-5-2%0.070.8124324521%0.190.72686654-32-5%0.551.4915941544-50-3%-0.372.359892.4-5.6-6.000000%
PIT162689707183%0.82.2112951305101%0.72.1281882130%0.411.86318312-6-2%0.30.86159172138%0.20.91623636132%0.841.6814641496322%0.31.857675.4-0.6-1.000000%
COL161708737294%0.781.91361136760%0.172.01865838-27-3%0.131.85333331-2-1%0.261.011631983521%0.360.77507532255%0.681.2215331480-53-3%-0.361.775865.87.814.000000%
CHC160801735-66-8%0.312.0713781305-73-5%-0.292.24895821-74-8%-0.111.71290302124%0.520.91193182-11-6%0.10.83652667152%0.861.5113761353-23-2%-0.141.878280.8-1.2-2.000000%
SEA162751733-18-2%0.31.8313331275-58-4%-0.152.19828777-51-6%-0.131.67295279-16-5%0.070.7521021994%0.290.69673650-23-3%0.651.4216031505-98-6%-0.661.838892.84.86.000000%
CHW1616236876410%0.932.0713041338343%0.312.52859872131%0.461.827427952%0.220.971711871610%0.190.864455045913%1.081.5414171385-32-2%0.222.236070.510.518.000000%
LAD165908822-86-9%-0.392.3314391403-36-3%-0.112.18862846-16-2%0.021.8327317-10-3%-0.010.96250240-10-4%0.170.75767653-114-15%0.061.3813821413312%0.161.8310093.9-6.2-6.000000%
SF161667693264%0.512.1912651295302%0.442.63824812-12-1%0.091.612683003212%0.560.9217318295%0.170.84636605-31-5%0.451.4114851515302%0.131.967877.1-0.9-1.000000%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
MIA163721716-5-1%0.51.9213561327-29-2%0.12.05832830-20%0.291.51331309-22-7%-0.070.86193188-5-3%0.160.88609599-10-2%0.91.5915011511101%0.231.897979.20.20.000000%
KC162851786-65-8%-0.222.0714301426-40%0.032.13898924263%0.421.76325321-4-1%0.140.99207181-26-13%0.060.86634628-6-1%0.621.6912701280101%0.22.0810687.8-18.2-17.000000%
OAK161911731-180-20%-0.612.1914551323-132-9%-0.752.41880825-55-6%-0.21.76363315-48-13%-0.160.99212183-29-14%0.010.84820628-192-23%-0.141.681292129971%-0.011.6411291.5-20.5-18.000000%
ATL165729750213%0.111.971373138181%0.472.16911873-38-4%0.181.62643145019%0.590.84198194-4-2%0.190.99639603-36-6%0.541.4615471507-40-3%-0.52.046172.611.619.000000%
MIL1636397208113%0.91.9112271298716%0.941.87786803172%0.351.752422955322%0.590.7819920121%0.150.82563609468%0.851.6714371406-31-2%01.637179.68.612.000000%
MIN168672726548%0.772.0413451377322%0.362.18863860-30%0.291.632783204215%0.580.94204197-7-3%0.080.79538563255%0.661.3416161574-42-3%0.071.817781.24.25.000000%
TEX179778791132%0.792.421473147520%0.332.06975937-38-4%0.021.682843153111%0.440.7321422284%0.240.82630611-19-3%0.621.4714801534544%0.321.757684.68.611.000000%
NYY162693730375%0.992.3112731315423%0.482.18802822202%0.311.76276286104%0.320.87195207126%0.310.76599614152%1.031.4614391464252%-0.051.978079.6-0.40.000000%
LAA162822741-81-10%0.072.2313981320-78-6%-0.152.17898826-72-8%0.051.58291285-6-2%0.340.88209208-10%0.20.8765618-147-19%0.011.3214451438-7-1%0.051.888981.9-7.1-8.000000%
DET162733718-15-2%0.182.0513211353322%0.622.49851877263%0.681.81283298155%0.40.85187178-9-5%0.050.89534569357%0.61.2213741365-9-1%-0.081.788481.1-2.9-3.000000%
STL160809759-50-6%0.021.815311385-146-10%-0.742.07967900-67-7%-0.041.92388303-85-22%-0.20.9817618264%0.130.9593613203%0.981.6212001215151%0.221.868983.7-5.3-6.000000%
BOS161769727-42-5%-0.131.7614111370-41-3%-0.272.17868866-20%0.051.7335324-11-3%0.060.98208179-29-14%0.150.92598569-29-5%0.661.4214161415-10%0.061.988376.9-6.1-7.000000%
HOU173742783415%0.91.9813951372-23-2%0.22.2873837-36-4%-0.131.930130983%0.480.7522122652%0.290.78663696335%0.851.7215671586191%0.151.857783.56.58.000000%
CIN162815782-33-4%0.11.9814271366-61-4%0.11.86868834-34-4%0.071.66337318-19-6%0.310.93222214-8-4%0.140.85707649-58-8%0.411.3713811423423%0.451.818084.94.96.000000%
TB164668701335%0.72.1412771316393%0.532.25803819162%0.391.7229530493%0.420.98179193148%0.210.92522561397%0.891.3715281519-9-1%-0.091.956577.712.720.000000%
CLE162681730497%0.642.1413541341-13-1%0.182.15871833-38-4%0.061.6231031662%0.210.871731921911%0.240.94594581-13-2%0.511.4313111383726%0.91.928683.2-2.8-3.000000%
NYM160721737162%0.332.2513231304-19-1%0.011.94873818-55-6%-0.111.372612872610%0.370.75189200116%0.220.82687661-26-4%0.641.5613821426443%0.262.038581.6-3.4-4.000000%
SD1626447147011%0.892.1112681283151%0.032.14839800-39-5%0.171.662552893413%0.440.931741942012%0.280.75647629-18-3%0.491.31445145491%0.231.488075-5-6.000000%
WAS161839800-39-5%0.032.1615051415-90-6%-0.222.1991888-103-10%-0.271.742703194918%0.470.95244209-35-15%0.060.79680625-55-8%0.511.3612181256383%0.361.669191.90.91.000000%
ARI179821833121%0.772.2915011495-60%0.192.63914913-10%0.41.8369364-5-1%0.150.9921821800%0.20.82657673162%0.71.441497150140%-0.022.048589.54.55.000000%
BAL1656897586910%1.12.1813621403413%0.682.7588589051%0.381.99295315207%0.30.89182198169%0.20.79571595244%0.811.3314591453-60%-0.122.1164791523.000000%
TOR1646727598713%1.522.5913401362222%0.812.38856821-35-4%0.181.562843274315%0.570.89200214147%0.330.85591609183%0.971.5515491563141%0.181.997579.84.86.000000%
PHI174733791588%0.831.9714001447473%0.392.08911895-16-2%0.091.682963273110%0.510.981932253217%0.220.615646225810%0.791.4415681582141%0.222.17681.65.67.000000%
PIT162782756-26-3%0.32.1113791368-11-1%0.382.24867855-12-1%0.341.78333330-3-1%0.140.9817918342%0.20.9702632-70-10%0.461.3413631355-8-1%0.231.948686.60.61.000000%
COL161941876-65-7%0.132.3915921506-86-5%-0.222.241004931-73-7%-0.61.7635535610%0.41.06233219-14-6%0.130.79677621-56-8%0.231.2911221163414%0.331.810395.2-7.8-8.000000%
CHC160709729203%0.832.0613151329141%0.11.94847836-11-1%0.061.5289299103%0.430.87179194159%0.370.85575597224%0.71.3513591413544%0.311.887879.21.22.000000%
SEA162652637-15-2%0.662.2913001258-42-3%0.192.24843803-40-5%0.121.61273270-3-1%0.360.7618418510%0.210.88500496-4-1%0.81.531459146010%-0.052.137469.2-4.8-7.000000%
CHW161827774-53-6%0.622.0113681349-19-1%0.342.45879855-24-3%0.321.8827728693%0.530.74212208-4-2%0.260.75757663-94-12%0.361.6314701403-67-5%-0.442.0210190.5-10.5-10.000000%
LAD16571171651%0.712.3913161338222%0.432.26828841132%0.251.9279295166%0.390.8209202-7-3%0.230.8756156210%0.81.3914141467534%0.471.946571.26.29.000000%
SF161702720183%0.471.881385139050%0.032.24910904-6-1%-0.21.7930230752%0.030.8317317964%0.140.85489530418%1.091.4813491329-20-2%0.171.878283.91.92.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif
Team Pitcher Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Hits Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif BF Sim Dif Inn Sim Dif W Sim Dif L Sim Dif