Matchup Machine

Julio Rodriguez

Worst 7% of matchups for Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn

Best 14% of matchups for Julio Rodriguez

Extreme advantage for Rodriguez

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.9%	4.5%	16.8%	8.4%	22.2%
MLB (+/-)	+2.1	+0.3	+2.9	-1.3	-3.1
Rodriguez	+0.2	+0.1	+2.2	+0.7	-1.5
Blackburn	+2.0	+0.3	+0.4	-1.6	-2.3

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.9%

4.5%

16.8%

8.4%

22.2%

MLB (+/-)

+2.1

+0.3

+2.9

-1.3

-3.1

Rodriguez

+0.2

+0.1

+2.2

+0.7

-1.5

Blackburn

+2.0

+0.3

+0.4

-1.6

-2.3

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	3	0	1	2	0	1	.300
Expected From Contact →			3.93	0.70	0.96	2.27			.393

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			3%	96%
2023-09-19	Groundout			7%	93%
2023-09-19	Flyout	49%	1%		49%
2022-07-02	Groundout		1%	9%	90%
2022-07-02	Groundout		55%	13%	32%
2022-07-02	Single			90%	10%
2022-06-22	Double	21%	34%	1%	43%
2022-06-22	Single			88%	11%
2022-06-22	Forceout		2%	12%	87%
2022-05-25	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-05-25	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	58%	106	RHB vs RHP	39	54%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

58%

106

RHB vs RHP

54%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	54%	100	Fastball	22	59%
⭐	37%	111	Breaking	60	30%
	14%	89	Offspeed	57	11%
			------------------
	54%	51	Sinker	25	25%
	63%	51	Cutter	58	20%
⭐⭐	62%	125	Slider	59	19%
⭐⭐	51%	114	Four-Seam FB	32	13%
	61%	52	Curveball	50	12%
	66%	74	Changeup	54	11%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

54%

100

Fastball

59%

⭐

37%

111

Breaking

30%

14%

Offspeed

11%

------------------

54%

Sinker

25%

63%

Cutter

20%

⭐⭐

62%

125

Slider

19%

⭐⭐

51%

114

Four-Seam FB

13%

61%

Curveball

12%

66%

Changeup

11%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	64%	101	Away / Glove Side	38	15%
	68%	62	Bottom of zone	51	11%
⭐⭐	77%	111	Top of zone	19	9%
	75%	55	In / Arm Side	50	6%
	81%	81	Middle	52	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

64%

101

Away / Glove Side

15%

68%

Bottom of zone

11%

⭐⭐

77%

111

Top of zone

75%

In / Arm Side

81%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	45%	58	Away / Glove Side	60	46%
	53%	56	Below the zone	52	42%
⭐⭐	42%	96	Above the zone	23	18%
⭐	46%	65	In / Arm Side	18	14%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Away / Glove Side

46%

53%

Below the zone

42%

⭐⭐

42%

Above the zone

18%

⭐

46%

In / Arm Side

14%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐	61%	100	2 Strikes	52	30%
⭐⭐	65%	100	Batter Ahead	14	28%
	60%	80	Batter Behind	56	27%
⭐⭐	45%	107	First Pitch	31	25%
⭐⭐	67%	97	3 Balls	27	9%
⭐⭐	72%	101	Full Count	21	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐

61%

100

2 Strikes

30%

⭐⭐

65%

100

Batter Ahead

28%

60%

Batter Behind

27%

⭐⭐

45%

107

First Pitch

25%

⭐⭐

67%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

72%

101

Full Count