Matchup Machine

Ryan Noda

Worst 41% of matchups for Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

Worst 32% of matchups for Ryan Noda

Moderate advantage for Castillo

- 3

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.2%	3.6%	9.8%	12.8%	33.7%
MLB (+/-)	+0.4	-0.6	-4.2	+3.1	+8.5
Noda	+0.0	+0.2	-1.3	-0.6	-1.0
Castillo	+0.4	-1.0	-2.4	+4.4	+7.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.2%

3.6%

9.8%

12.8%

33.7%

MLB (+/-)

+0.4

-0.6

-4.2

+3.1

+8.5

Noda

+0.0

+0.2

-1.3

-0.6

-1.0

Castillo

+0.4

-1.0

-2.4

+4.4

+7.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	.200
Expected From Contact →			1.79	0.00	0.60	1.18			.358

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			19%	81%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-05-22	Lineout		49%	9%	42%
2023-05-22	Single		11%	24%	65%
2023-05-22	Groundout			66%	34%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	44%	37	LHB vs RHP	116	55%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

44%

LHB vs RHP

116

55%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
47%	34	Fastball	100	62%	⭐⭐
21%	26	Breaking	77	22%	⭐
7%	73	Offspeed	83	16%
		------------------
46%	65	Four-Seam FB	98	44%
40%	18	Slider	101	22%	⭐⭐
46%	7	Sinker	78	18%	⭐
47%	75	Changeup	86	16%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

100

62%

⭐⭐

21%

Breaking

22%

⭐

Offspeed

16%

------------------

46%

Four-Seam FB

44%

40%

Slider

101

22%

⭐⭐

46%

Sinker

18%

⭐

47%

Changeup

16%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
66%	105	Away / Arm Side	97	13%
64%	9	Bottom of zone	74	12%	⭐
73%	39	Top of zone	110	12%	⭐⭐
56%	-12	In / Glove Side	111	8%	⭐⭐
86%	72	Middle	47	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

105

Away / Arm Side

13%

64%

Bottom of zone

12%

⭐

73%

Top of zone

110

12%

⭐⭐

56%

-12

In / Glove Side

111

⭐⭐

86%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
22%	43	Away / Arm Side	123	32%	⭐⭐
32%	2	Below the zone	93	32%	⭐⭐
24%	18	Above the zone	110	25%	⭐⭐
23%	26	In / Glove Side	95	19%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

22%

Away / Arm Side

123

32%

⭐⭐

32%

Below the zone

32%

⭐⭐

24%

Above the zone

110

25%

⭐⭐

23%

In / Glove Side

19%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
50%	32	2 Strikes	102	32%	⭐⭐
45%	47	Batter Behind	96	31%	⭐
48%	44	Batter Ahead	108	25%	⭐⭐
36%	39	First Pitch	78	25%
53%	47	3 Balls	98	9%	⭐
60%	60	Full Count	76	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

50%

2 Strikes

102

32%

⭐⭐

45%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

48%

Batter Ahead

108

25%

⭐⭐

36%

First Pitch

25%

53%

3 Balls

⭐

60%

Full Count