Matchup Machine

Jordan Diaz

Worst 46% of matchups for Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

Worst 21% of matchups for Jordan Diaz

Moderate advantage for Castillo

- 4

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.2%	4.6%	12.8%	5.5%	27.7%
MLB (+/-)	+0.4	+0.4	-1.1	-4.2	+2.5
Diaz	+0.3	+0.2	-1.9	-1.1	+2.5
Castillo	+0.4	-0.1	+0.6	-2.9	+1.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.2%

4.6%

12.8%

5.5%

27.7%

MLB (+/-)

+0.4

-1.1

-4.2

+2.5

Diaz

+0.3

+0.2

-1.9

-1.1

+2.5

Castillo

+0.4

-0.1

+0.6

-2.9

+1.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	.250
Expected From Contact →			1.53	0.00	0.61	0.92			.383

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2022-10-01	Groundout		1%	42%	56%
2022-10-01	Single		56%	42%	2%
2022-09-20	Forceout			4%	96%
2022-09-20	Groundout		4%	4%	92%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	59%	40	RHB vs RHP	87	45%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

59%

RHB vs RHP

45%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
54%	28	Fastball	100	62%	⭐⭐
42%	30	Breaking	77	22%	⭐
21%	45	Offspeed	83	16%
		------------------
57%	48	Four-Seam FB	98	44%	⭐
68%	31	Slider	101	22%	⭐⭐
45%	15	Sinker	78	18%	⭐
69%	35	Changeup	86	16%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

54%

Fastball

100

62%

⭐⭐

42%

Breaking

22%

⭐

21%

Offspeed

16%

------------------

57%

Four-Seam FB

44%

⭐

68%

Slider

101

22%

⭐⭐

45%

Sinker

18%

⭐

69%

Changeup

16%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
80%	18	Bottom of zone	74	12%	⭐
83%	54	Top of zone	110	12%	⭐
77%	54	Away / Glove Side	102	11%	⭐
68%	27	In / Arm Side	56	9%
70%	44	Middle	64	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

80%

Bottom of zone

12%

⭐

83%

Top of zone

110

12%

⭐

77%

Away / Glove Side

102

11%

⭐

68%

In / Arm Side

70%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
53%	22	Away / Glove Side	65	36%	⭐
53%	0	Below the zone	93	32%	⭐⭐
44%	42	Above the zone	110	25%	⭐⭐
36%	35	In / Arm Side	64	17%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

53%

Away / Glove Side

36%

⭐

53%

Below the zone

32%

⭐⭐

44%

Above the zone

110

25%

⭐⭐

36%

In / Arm Side

17%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
68%	55	2 Strikes	102	32%	⭐
66%	43	Batter Behind	96	31%	⭐
63%	43	Batter Ahead	108	25%	⭐⭐
44%	30	First Pitch	78	25%	⭐
62%	56	3 Balls	98	9%	⭐
73%	57	Full Count	76	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

68%

2 Strikes

102

32%

⭐

66%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

63%

Batter Ahead

108

25%

⭐⭐

44%

First Pitch

25%

⭐

62%

3 Balls

⭐

73%

Full Count