Matchup Machine

Jarred Kelenic

Worst 18% of matchups for Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn

Best 20% of matchups for Jarred Kelenic

Strong advantage for Kelenic

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.8%	4.7%	14.1%	12.5%	28.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.0	+0.5	+0.2	+2.9	+3.4
Kelenic	+0.3	+0.0	+1.8	+0.9	-1.6
Blackburn	+0.9	+0.4	-2.3	+2.6	+4.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.8%

4.7%

14.1%

12.5%

28.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.0

+0.5

+0.2

+2.9

+3.4

Kelenic

+0.3

+0.0

+1.8

+0.9

-1.6

Blackburn

+0.9

+0.4

-2.3

+2.6

+4.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	4	0	1	3	1	0	.667
Expected From Contact →			3.72	0.02	1.41	2.29			.620

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single		1%	95%	4%
2023-09-19	Single		2%	86%	13%
2021-09-21	Triple	2%	77%	6%	15%
2021-09-21	Strikeout
2021-08-23	Single		61%	31%	7%
2021-08-23	Groundout			11%	89%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	50%	49	LHB vs RHP	22	46%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

50%

LHB vs RHP

46%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
52%	59	Fastball	22	59%
41%	36	Breaking	60	30%
27%	3	Offspeed	57	11%
		------------------
42%	49	Sinker	25	25%
50%	63	Cutter	58	20%
48%	34	Slider	59	19%
56%	52	Four-Seam FB	32	13%
41%	26	Curveball	50	12%
57%	-3	Changeup	54	11%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

52%

Fastball

59%

41%

Breaking

30%

27%

Offspeed

11%

------------------

42%

Sinker

25%

50%

Cutter

20%

48%

Slider

19%

56%

Four-Seam FB

13%

41%

Curveball

12%

57%

-3

Changeup

11%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
66%	67	Bottom of zone	51	11%
67%	50	In / Glove Side	6	10%
70%	54	Top of zone	19	9%
63%	27	Away / Arm Side	17	9%
73%	42	Middle	31	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

Bottom of zone

11%

67%

In / Glove Side

10%

70%

Top of zone

63%

Away / Arm Side

73%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
43%	0	Below the zone	52	42%
37%	30	In / Glove Side	63	29%
34%	43	Away / Arm Side	21	24%
37%	37	Above the zone	23	18%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

43%

Below the zone

42%

37%

In / Glove Side

29%

34%

Away / Arm Side

24%

37%

Above the zone

18%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
60%	37	2 Strikes	52	30%
56%	55	Batter Ahead	14	28%
53%	32	Batter Behind	56	27%
36%	60	First Pitch	31	25%
64%	28	3 Balls	27	9%
68%	37	Full Count	21	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

60%

2 Strikes

30%

56%

Batter Ahead

28%

53%

Batter Behind

27%

36%

First Pitch

25%

64%

3 Balls

68%

Full Count