Matchup Machine

Yordan Alvarez

Worst 3% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Best 18% of matchups for Yordan Alvarez

Extreme advantage for Alvarez

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	5.7%	4.7%	15.3%	9.5%	17.6%
MLB (+/-)	+2.9	+0.4	+1.3	-0.3	-7.7
Alvarez	+1.1	+0.1	+1.8	-1.7	-2.2
Gibson	+2.1	-0.3	-0.6	+0.6	-3.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

5.7%

4.7%

15.3%

9.5%

17.6%

MLB (+/-)

+2.9

+0.4

+1.3

-0.3

-7.7

Alvarez

+1.1

+0.1

+1.8

-1.7

-2.2

Gibson

+2.1

-0.3

-0.6

+0.6

-3.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	2	0	0	2	2	1	.200
Expected From Contact →			2.65	0.00	0.41	2.24			.265

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			34%	66%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2021-07-24	Sac Fly		3%	44%	53%
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-07-24	Single		12%	60%	28%
2021-06-15	Single		22%	71%	7%
2021-06-15	Flyout		2%		98%
2021-06-15	Lineout		2%	2%	96%
2021-05-21	Groundout			13%	86%
2021-05-21	Hit By Pitch
2021-05-21	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	45%	111	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

45%

111

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	44%	115	Fastball	16	56%
⭐	29%	104	Breaking	56	27%
⭐⭐	12%	106	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
⭐⭐	43%	109	Sinker	29	26%
⭐	50%	99	Slider	58	19%
⭐⭐	48%	120	Cutter	21	18%
⭐⭐	55%	124	Changeup	38	17%
⭐⭐	44%	93	Four-Seam FB	30	12%
⭐	42%	104	Curveball	50	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

44%

115

Fastball

56%

⭐

29%

104

Breaking

27%

⭐⭐

12%

106

Offspeed

17%

------------------

⭐⭐

43%

109

Sinker

26%

⭐

50%

Slider

19%

⭐⭐

48%

120

Cutter

18%

⭐⭐

55%

124

Changeup

17%

⭐⭐

44%

Four-Seam FB

12%

⭐

42%

104

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	61%	114	Bottom of zone	19	14%
⭐	70%	60	Away / Arm Side	-5	11%
	67%	64	In / Glove Side	24	10%
⭐⭐	76%	110	Top of zone	20	9%
⭐	67%	86	Middle	34	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

61%

114

Bottom of zone

14%

⭐

70%

Away / Arm Side

-5

11%

67%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

76%

110

Top of zone

⭐

67%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	42%	112	Below the zone	50	44%
⭐	30%	85	In / Glove Side	38	26%
⭐	31%	103	Away / Arm Side	51	24%
	29%	47	Above the zone	24	16%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

42%

112

Below the zone

44%

⭐

30%

In / Glove Side

26%

⭐

31%

103

Away / Arm Side

24%

29%

Above the zone

16%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	44%	85	Batter Ahead	2	28%
⭐⭐	61%	100	2 Strikes	37	27%
⭐	54%	109	Batter Behind	56	26%
⭐⭐	35%	106	First Pitch	23	26%
	52%	40	3 Balls	0	8%
	68%	17	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

44%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐⭐

61%

100

2 Strikes

27%

⭐

54%

109

Batter Behind

26%

⭐⭐

35%

106

First Pitch

26%

52%

3 Balls

68%

Full Count

-20