Matchup Machine

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Worst 3% of matchups for Clarke Schmidt

Clarke Schmidt

Best 23% of matchups for V. Guerrero Jr.

Extreme advantage for Guerrero Jr.

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.3%	5.4%	17.2%	8.6%	15.9%
MLB (+/-)	+0.5	+1.1	+3.2	-1.1	-9.3
Guerrero Jr.	+0.5	+0.6	+0.9	-0.7	-1.5
Schmidt	+0.2	+1.0	+2.1	-0.3	-8.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.3%

5.4%

17.2%

8.6%

15.9%

MLB (+/-)

+0.5

+1.1

+3.2

-1.1

-9.3

Guerrero Jr.

+0.5

+0.6

+0.9

-0.7

-1.5

Schmidt

+0.2

+1.0

+2.1

-0.3

-8.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	8	8	2	1	0	1	0	0	.250
Expected From Contact →			3.01	0.29	1.22	1.50			.377

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	GIDP			7%	93%
2023-09-19	Field Error
2023-09-19	Lineout		2%	84%	14%
2023-04-23	Groundout			5%	94%
2023-04-23	Home Run	29%	64%	6%	1%
2023-04-23	Lineout		10%	3%	87%
2022-09-28	GIDP			15%	85%
2022-09-26	Single		46%	31%	24%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	56%	105	RHB vs RHP	42	49%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

56%

105

RHB vs RHP

49%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	51%	68	Fastball	35	50%
	34%	103	Breaking	100	48%
			------------------
⭐	56%	102	Slider	58	28%
	56%	34	Cutter	104	26%	⭐⭐
	48%	40	Sinker	27	24%
	56%	48	Knuckle-Curve	125	20%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

51%

Fastball

50%

34%

103

Breaking

100

48%

------------------

⭐

56%

102

Slider

28%

56%

Cutter

104

26%

⭐⭐

48%

Sinker

24%

56%

Knuckle-Curve

125

20%

⭐⭐

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	77%	100	Bottom of zone	48	15%
	75%	46	Away / Glove Side	27	12%
⭐	79%	111	In / Arm Side	52	12%
	81%	54	Top of zone	32	11%
⭐⭐	83%	103	Middle	14	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

77%

100

Bottom of zone

15%

75%

Away / Glove Side

12%

⭐

79%

111

In / Arm Side

12%

81%

Top of zone

11%

⭐⭐

83%

103

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
42%	57	Below the zone	111	36%	⭐
40%	65	Away / Glove Side	99	35%
33%	72	Above the zone	59	17%
36%	43	In / Arm Side	24	15%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

42%

Below the zone

111

36%

⭐

40%

Away / Glove Side

35%

33%

Above the zone

17%

36%

In / Arm Side

15%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	65%	57	2 Strikes	78	32%
	56%	82	Batter Behind	61	32%
⭐⭐	46%	107	First Pitch	40	26%
	55%	71	Batter Ahead	67	24%
	66%	42	3 Balls	78	7%
	75%	59	Full Count	95	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

65%

2 Strikes

32%

56%

Batter Behind

32%

⭐⭐

46%

107

First Pitch

26%

55%

Batter Ahead

24%

66%

3 Balls

75%

Full Count