Matchup Machine

Nathaniel Lowe

Worst 5% of matchups for Tanner Houck

Tanner Houck

Worst 48% of matchups for Nathaniel Lowe

Strong advantage for Lowe

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.6%	4.5%	14.4%	12.9%	17.9%
MLB (+/-)	-0.1	+0.3	+0.4	+3.2	-7.3
Lowe	-0.0	+0.0	-1.3	+0.7	-3.0
Houck	-0.2	+0.3	+1.9	+2.3	-5.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.6%

4.5%

14.4%

12.9%

17.9%

MLB (+/-)

-0.1

+0.3

+0.4

+3.2

-7.3

Lowe

-0.0

+0.0

-1.3

+0.7

-3.0

Houck

-0.2

+0.3

+1.9

+2.3

-5.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000
Expected From Contact →			0.24	0.00	0.10	0.14			.081

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Lineout		10%	5%	85%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2022-05-15	Groundout			9%	91%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	46%	39	LHB vs RHP	51	53%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

46%

LHB vs RHP

53%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
46%	26	Fastball	29	51%
20%	55	Breaking	69	38%
8%	48	Offspeed	93	11%	⭐
		------------------
50%	54	Slider	69	38%
43%	45	Sinker	55	29%
46%	64	Cutter	62	12%
30%	10	Splitter	100	11%	⭐⭐
48%	9	Four-Seam FB	27	10%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

46%

Fastball

51%

20%

Breaking

38%

Offspeed

11%

⭐

------------------

50%

Slider

38%

43%

Sinker

29%

46%

Cutter

12%

30%

Splitter

100

11%

⭐⭐

48%

Four-Seam FB

10%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
65%	67	Bottom of zone	55	15%
59%	39	Away / Arm Side	26	11%
73%	17	Top of zone	39	8%
72%	50	In / Glove Side	61	7%
78%	33	Middle	40	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

65%

Bottom of zone

15%

59%

Away / Arm Side

11%

73%

Top of zone

72%

In / Glove Side

78%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
30%	47	Below the zone	79	43%
18%	50	Away / Arm Side	28	31%
32%	46	In / Glove Side	92	23%	⭐
36%	4	Above the zone	8	14%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

30%

Below the zone

43%

18%

Away / Arm Side

31%

32%

In / Glove Side

23%

⭐

36%

Above the zone

14%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	51%	34	Batter Behind	51	29%
	59%	62	2 Strikes	56	28%
	48%	69	Batter Ahead	43	27%
	29%	0	First Pitch	41	27%
⭐	58%	101	3 Balls	41	8%
⭐⭐	69%	118	Full Count	44	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

51%

Batter Behind

29%

59%

2 Strikes

28%

48%

Batter Ahead

27%

29%

First Pitch

27%

⭐

58%

101

3 Balls

⭐⭐

69%

118

Full Count