Matchup Machine

Kyle Tucker

Worst 4% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Best 26% of matchups for Kyle Tucker

Extreme advantage for Tucker

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.6%	5.0%	15.1%	11.6%	16.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.8	+0.7	+1.1	+1.9	-8.7
Tucker	+0.4	+0.2	+1.7	-0.9	-2.3
Gibson	+1.0	-0.0	-0.8	+2.7	-4.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.6%

5.0%

15.1%

11.6%

16.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.8

+0.7

+1.1

+1.9

-8.7

Tucker

+0.4

+0.2

+1.7

-0.9

-2.3

Gibson

+1.0

-0.0

-0.8

+2.7

-4.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	14	13	4	1	0	3	0	1	.308
Expected From Contact →			4.02	1.16	0.48	2.38			.309

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Home Run	98%			1%
2023-09-19	Flyout	16%	17%		67%
2021-07-24	Pop Out		4%	12%	84%
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-07-24	Lineout		1%	18%	81%
2021-05-21	Single		2%	39%	59%
2021-05-21	Groundout		4%	53%	43%
2021-05-21	Flyout	2%	4%		94%
2021-05-16	Flyout				100%
2021-05-16	Lineout		11%	4%	84%
2021-05-16	Flyout		2%	3%	96%
2020-09-26	Single		2%	30%	69%
2020-09-26	Flyout				100%
2020-09-26	Single		1%	79%	20%
2020-09-16	Lineout		80%	9%	11%
2020-09-16	Single		2%	38%	60%
2020-09-16	Flyout		3%	48%	49%
2020-09-16	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	49%	83	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

49%

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	48%	100	Fastball	16	56%
⭐	28%	99	Breaking	56	27%
	15%	78	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
	44%	62	Sinker	29	26%
⭐	48%	101	Slider	58	19%
⭐	47%	80	Cutter	21	18%
⭐	57%	92	Changeup	38	17%
⭐⭐	49%	100	Four-Seam FB	30	12%
	50%	71	Curveball	50	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

48%

100

Fastball

56%

⭐

28%

Breaking

27%

15%

Offspeed

17%

------------------

44%

Sinker

26%

⭐

48%

101

Slider

19%

⭐

47%

Cutter

18%

⭐

57%

Changeup

17%

⭐⭐

49%

100

Four-Seam FB

12%

50%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	70%	90	Bottom of zone	19	14%
	66%	53	Away / Arm Side	-5	11%
⭐⭐	73%	95	In / Glove Side	24	10%
⭐⭐	78%	102	Top of zone	20	9%
	89%	17	Middle	34	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

70%

Bottom of zone

14%

66%

Away / Arm Side

-5

11%

⭐⭐

73%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

78%

102

Top of zone

89%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
38%	78	Below the zone	50	44%
32%	46	In / Glove Side	38	26%
23%	50	Away / Arm Side	51	24%
27%	28	Above the zone	24	16%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

38%

Below the zone

44%

32%

In / Glove Side

26%

23%

Away / Arm Side

24%

27%

Above the zone

16%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	53%	82	Batter Ahead	2	28%
⭐⭐	60%	108	2 Strikes	37	27%
⭐	46%	100	Batter Behind	56	26%
⭐	44%	83	First Pitch	23	26%
⭐⭐	66%	125	3 Balls	0	8%
⭐⭐	71%	117	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

53%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐⭐

60%

108

2 Strikes

27%

⭐

46%

100

Batter Behind

26%

⭐

44%

First Pitch

26%

⭐⭐

66%

125

3 Balls

⭐⭐

71%

117

Full Count

-20