Matchup Machine

Ryan Mountcastle

Worst 35% of matchups for Hunter Brown

Hunter Brown

Worst 47% of matchups for R. Mountcastle

Moderate advantage for Mountcastle

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.5%	4.2%	14.7%	7.6%	23.1%
MLB (+/-)	+0.7	-0.0	+0.8	-2.1	-2.1
Mountcastle	+0.6	-0.3	-1.0	+0.9	+0.3
Brown	+0.0	-0.1	+1.9	-3.2	-3.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.5%

4.2%

14.7%

7.6%

23.1%

MLB (+/-)

+0.7

-0.0

+0.8

-2.1

Mountcastle

+0.6

-0.3

-1.0

+0.9

+0.3

Brown

+0.0

-0.1

+1.9

-3.2

-3.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.20	0.75	0.25	0.21			.401

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-10	Lineout		2%	12%	86%
2023-08-10	Home Run	75%	22%		2%
2023-08-10	Groundout			8%	92%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	56%	34	RHB vs RHP	79	52%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

56%

RHB vs RHP

52%

⭐

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	35%	91	Breaking	56	50%
	54%	41	Fastball	76	46%
	14%	61	Offspeed	63	4%
			------------------
	55%	16	Four-Seam FB	54	46%
	52%	69	Knuckle-Curve	106	25%
⭐	59%	81	Slider	23	24%
	52%	19	Splitter	14	4%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

35%

Breaking

50%

54%

Fastball

46%

14%

Offspeed

------------------

55%

Four-Seam FB

46%

52%

Knuckle-Curve

106

25%

⭐

59%

Slider

24%

52%

Splitter

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
70%	29	Top of zone	74	13%	⭐
66%	-4	Away / Glove Side	70	12%	⭐
74%	74	Bottom of zone	56	12%
77%	66	In / Arm Side	90	8%
80%	37	Middle	54	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

70%

Top of zone

13%

⭐

66%

-4

Away / Glove Side

12%

⭐

74%

Bottom of zone

12%

77%

In / Arm Side

80%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
50%	104	Below the zone	86	32%
33%	48	Away / Glove Side	78	31%
36%	38	Above the zone	46	26%
56%	56	In / Arm Side	17	15%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

50%

104

Below the zone

32%

33%

Away / Glove Side

31%

36%

Above the zone

26%

56%

In / Arm Side

15%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
67%	52	2 Strikes	62	32%
56%	62	Batter Ahead	50	29%
61%	68	Batter Behind	75	28%
44%	42	First Pitch	76	24%
54%	44	3 Balls	51	10%
71%	57	Full Count	50	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

67%

2 Strikes

32%

56%

Batter Ahead

29%

61%

Batter Behind

28%

44%

First Pitch

24%

54%

3 Balls

10%

71%

Full Count