Matchup Machine

Austin Riley

Worst 2% of matchups for C. Sanchez

Cristopher Sanchez

Best 45% of matchups for Austin Riley

Strong advantage for Riley

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.9%	5.5%	14.3%	7.0%	26.0%
MLB (+/-)	+2.1	+1.3	+0.4	-2.7	+0.8
Riley	+0.2	+0.9	+1.2	-2.8	-0.8
Sanchez	+2.0	+0.8	-0.4	+0.5	-0.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.9%

5.5%

14.3%

7.0%

26.0%

MLB (+/-)

+2.1

+1.3

+0.4

-2.7

+0.8

Riley

+0.2

+0.9

+1.2

-2.8

-0.8

Sanchez

+2.0

+0.8

-0.4

+0.5

-0.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	7	7	3	1	0	2	1	0	.429
Expected From Contact →			1.93	0.99	0.30	0.64			.276

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Single		2%	27%	71%
2023-09-13	Home Run	98%
2023-09-13	Sac Fly		7%		92%
2023-09-13	Single		20%	36%	44%
2023-09-13	Flyout				100%
2021-07-24	Flyout				100%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	52%	79	RHB vs LHP	34	80%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

52%

RHB vs LHP

80%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	50%	72	Fastball	19	46%
	8%	70	Offspeed	104	32%
	27%	55	Breaking	31	22%
			------------------
⭐	50%	83	Sinker	36	46%
	49%	69	Changeup	100	32%
	54%	48	Slider	31	22%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

50%

Fastball

46%

Offspeed

104

32%

27%

Breaking

22%

------------------

⭐

50%

Sinker

46%

49%

Changeup

100

32%

54%

Slider

22%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	71%	83	Bottom of zone	5	18%
	83%	82	In / Glove Side	74	12%
	61%	48	Away / Arm Side	-14	10%
	68%	59	Top of zone	32	7%
	76%	48	Middle	38	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

71%

Bottom of zone

18%

83%

In / Glove Side

12%

61%

Away / Arm Side

-14

10%

68%

Top of zone

76%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
44%	67	Below the zone	67	47%
49%	66	In / Glove Side	65	26%
15%	47	Away / Arm Side	47	23%
28%	0	Above the zone	24	9%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

44%

Below the zone

47%

49%

In / Glove Side

26%

15%

Away / Arm Side

23%

28%

Above the zone

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	55%	69	Batter Behind	35	31%
⭐	59%	94	2 Strikes	45	29%
	31%	23	First Pitch	25	27%
	58%	74	Batter Ahead	34	23%
	65%	73	3 Balls	52	6%
⭐	73%	97	Full Count	40	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

55%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

59%

2 Strikes

29%

31%

First Pitch

27%

58%

Batter Ahead

23%

65%

3 Balls

⭐

73%

Full Count