Matchup Machine

Yoan Moncada

Worst 8% of matchups for J. Rutledge

Jackson Rutledge

Best 24% of matchups for Yoan Moncada

Strong advantage for Moncada

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.7%	4.9%	12.8%	11.0%	22.2%
MLB (+/-)	+0.9	+0.6	-1.2	+1.3	-3.0
Moncada	+0.5	+0.7	+0.6	-1.3	-7.8
Rutledge	+0.7	+0.3	-0.5	+2.2	+1.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.7%

4.9%

12.8%

11.0%

22.2%

MLB (+/-)

+0.9

+0.6

-1.2

+1.3

-3.0

Moncada

+0.5

+0.7

+0.6

-1.3

-7.8

Rutledge

+0.7

+0.3

-0.5

+2.2

+1.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.02	0.99	0.02	0.00			.339

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Flyout	2%			97%
2023-09-19	Home Run	97%	2%
2023-09-19	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	51%	72	LHB vs RHP	58	52%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

51%

LHB vs RHP

52%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	67	Fastball	66	59%
⭐⭐	27%	96	Breaking	33	27%
	24%	14	Offspeed	58	14%
			------------------
	47%	59	Four-Seam FB	49	43%
	48%	62	Slider	30	22%
	46%	69	Sinker	90	16%
	53%	16	Changeup	57	14%
⭐⭐	58%	110	Curveball	32	5%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

59%

⭐⭐

27%

Breaking

27%

24%

Offspeed

14%

------------------

47%

Four-Seam FB

43%

48%

Slider

22%

46%

Sinker

16%

53%

Changeup

14%

⭐⭐

58%

110

Curveball

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
59%	22	Bottom of zone	92	14%	⭐⭐
70%	46	Top of zone	43	13%
68%	34	In / Glove Side	74	12%
63%	35	Away / Arm Side	47	10%
82%	74	Middle	91	7%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

59%

Bottom of zone

14%

⭐⭐

70%

Top of zone

13%

68%

In / Glove Side

12%

63%

Away / Arm Side

10%

82%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	34%	38	Away / Arm Side	43	31%
⭐	32%	79	Above the zone	33	27%
⭐	46%	75	Below the zone	12	25%
⭐⭐	37%	93	In / Glove Side	13	18%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

34%

Away / Arm Side

31%

⭐

32%

Above the zone

27%

⭐

46%

Below the zone

25%

⭐⭐

37%

In / Glove Side

18%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	60%	91	Batter Ahead	64	41%
	58%	35	2 Strikes	56	29%
⭐	33%	102	First Pitch	43	25%
	52%	4	Batter Behind	50	20%
	65%	87	3 Balls	78	17%
	72%	68	Full Count	70	12%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

60%

Batter Ahead

41%

58%

2 Strikes

29%

⭐

33%

102

First Pitch

25%

52%

Batter Behind

20%

65%

3 Balls

17%

72%

Full Count

12%