Matchup Machine

Aledmys Diaz

Best 41% of matchups for Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo

Worst 10% of matchups for Aledmys Diaz

Strong advantage for Castillo

- 6

Model Prediction
Prediction	1.7%	4.4%	12.8%	6.4%	23.1%
MLB (+/-)	-1.1	+0.2	-1.2	-3.3	-2.1
Diaz	-0.1	-0.1	-2.1	-1.0	+1.7
Castillo	-1.1	-0.2	+0.6	-2.0	-2.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

1.7%

4.4%

12.8%

6.4%

23.1%

MLB (+/-)

-1.1

+0.2

-1.2

-3.3

-2.1

Diaz

-0.1

-2.1

-1.0

+1.7

Castillo

-1.1

-0.2

+0.6

-2.0

-2.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	6	2	0	2	0	1	0	.333
Expected From Contact →			1.63	0.00	1.39	0.25			.272

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Double		95%	4%
2023-09-19	Forceout			4%	95%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2022-10-13	Double		42%	15%	43%
2022-10-13	Pop Out				100%
2022-10-13	Flyout				99%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	56%	27	RHB vs RHP	87	45%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

56%

RHB vs RHP

45%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
53%	16	Fastball	100	62%	⭐⭐
35%	29	Breaking	75	22%	⭐
13%	89	Offspeed	83	16%
		------------------
53%	53	Four-Seam FB	95	44%	⭐
59%	26	Slider	101	22%	⭐⭐
52%	-5	Sinker	78	18%	⭐
65%	65	Changeup	86	16%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

53%

Fastball

100

62%

⭐⭐

35%

Breaking

22%

⭐

13%

Offspeed

16%

------------------

53%

Four-Seam FB

44%

⭐

59%

Slider

101

22%

⭐⭐

52%

-5

Sinker

18%

⭐

65%

Changeup

16%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
69%	39	Bottom of zone	75	12%
75%	44	Top of zone	110	12%	⭐⭐
59%	39	Away / Glove Side	102	11%	⭐⭐
71%	25	In / Arm Side	56	9%
77%	52	Middle	64	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

69%

Bottom of zone

12%

75%

Top of zone

110

12%

⭐⭐

59%

Away / Glove Side

102

11%

⭐⭐

71%

In / Arm Side

77%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
43%	18	Away / Glove Side	65	36%	⭐
46%	38	Below the zone	93	32%	⭐
44%	-8	Above the zone	110	25%	⭐⭐
46%	-3	In / Arm Side	61	17%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

43%

Away / Glove Side

36%

⭐

46%

Below the zone

32%

⭐

44%

-8

Above the zone

110

25%

⭐⭐

46%

-3

In / Arm Side

17%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
71%	48	2 Strikes	100	32%	⭐
65%	15	Batter Behind	96	31%	⭐⭐
55%	42	Batter Ahead	108	25%	⭐⭐
40%	43	First Pitch	78	25%
58%	83	3 Balls	97	9%
70%	55	Full Count	76	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

71%

2 Strikes

100

32%

⭐

65%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐⭐

55%

Batter Ahead

108

25%

⭐⭐

40%

First Pitch

25%

58%

3 Balls

70%

Full Count