Matchup Machine

Thairo Estrada

Worst 26% of matchups for Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen

Best 43% of matchups for Thairo Estrada

Moderate advantage for Estrada

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.2%	5.2%	14.8%	5.9%	19.6%
MLB (+/-)	+0.4	+0.9	+0.9	-3.8	-5.6
Estrada	+0.4	+0.5	-0.5	-0.4	+0.1
Gallen	-0.2	+0.8	+0.5	-2.2	-6.6

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.2%

5.2%

14.8%

5.9%

19.6%

MLB (+/-)

+0.4

+0.9

-3.8

-5.6

Estrada

+0.4

+0.5

-0.5

-0.4

+0.1

Gallen

-0.2

+0.8

+0.5

-2.2

-6.6

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	15	6	0	1	5	5	2	.400
Expected From Contact →			4.08	0.07	0.66	3.36			.272

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single			22%	78%
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-05-13	Lineout			55%	45%
2023-05-13	Groundout			11%	89%
2023-05-13	Strikeout
2023-05-13	Strikeout
2022-08-18	Strikeout
2022-08-18	Single		13%	7%	80%
2022-08-18	Strikeout
2022-07-27	Single			94%	6%
2022-07-27	Strikeout
2022-07-13	Single		9%	63%	28%
2022-07-13	Double	6%	36%		58%
2022-07-13	Groundout			2%	98%
2021-08-04	Lineout		6%		93%
2021-08-04	Walk
2021-07-02	Single		2%	80%	18%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	55%	71	RHB vs RHP	90	52%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

55%

RHB vs RHP

52%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
52%	79	Fastball	84	62%
38%	29	Breaking	61	24%
12%	25	Offspeed	95	14%	⭐⭐
		------------------
57%	53	Four-Seam FB	66	49%
56%	-12	Knuckle-Curve	113	23%	⭐⭐
54%	31	Changeup	98	14%	⭐⭐
47%	90	Cutter	62	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

52%

Fastball

62%

38%

Breaking

24%

12%

Offspeed

14%

⭐⭐

------------------

57%

Four-Seam FB

49%

56%

-12

Knuckle-Curve

113

23%

⭐⭐

54%

Changeup

14%

⭐⭐

47%

Cutter

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
72%	59	Bottom of zone	70	13%
68%	68	Away / Glove Side	85	12%
79%	77	In / Arm Side	70	11%
71%	83	Top of zone	64	10%
77%	24	Middle	71	5%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

72%

Bottom of zone

13%

68%

Away / Glove Side

12%

79%

In / Arm Side

11%

71%

Top of zone

10%

77%

Middle

⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
41%	3	Below the zone	96	41%	⭐⭐
38%	38	Away / Glove Side	69	29%
56%	26	In / Arm Side	68	20%	⭐
51%	61	Above the zone	84	19%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

41%

Below the zone

41%

⭐⭐

38%

Away / Glove Side

29%

56%

In / Arm Side

20%

⭐

51%

Above the zone

19%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
67%	45	2 Strikes	96	31%	⭐
61%	40	Batter Behind	91	31%	⭐
37%	42	First Pitch	78	26%
55%	73	Batter Ahead	95	24%
64%	77	3 Balls	107	7%
76%	70	Full Count	103	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

67%

2 Strikes

31%

⭐

61%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

37%

First Pitch

26%

55%

Batter Ahead

24%

64%

3 Balls

107

76%

Full Count

103