Matchup Machine

Dominic Smith

Worst 5% of matchups for Jose Urena

Jose Urena

Best 4% of matchups for Dominic Smith

Extreme advantage for Smith

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.9%	5.9%	16.5%	7.6%	12.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+1.6	+2.6	-2.1	-12.7
Smith	+0.8	+1.0	+0.7	-0.2	-5.7
Urena	+0.7	+1.2	+2.0	-2.9	-6.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.9%

5.9%

16.5%

7.6%

12.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.1

+1.6

+2.6

-2.1

-12.7

Smith

+0.8

+1.0

+0.7

-0.2

-5.7

Urena

+0.7

+1.2

+2.0

-2.9

-6.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Expected From Contact →			0.19	0.01	0.04	0.15			.048

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	GIDP		2%	8%	90%
2023-09-19	Flyout				99%
2023-04-07	GIDP			6%	94%
2023-04-07	Flyout		2%		98%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	52%	76	LHB vs RHP	17	54%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

52%

LHB vs RHP

54%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	48%	32	Fastball	37	55%
⭐⭐	27%	88	Breaking	12	24%
	13%	61	Offspeed	56	22%
			------------------
	43%	45	Sinker	67	38%
	56%	57	Slider	7	24%
	53%	71	Changeup	55	22%
	49%	37	Four-Seam FB	32	15%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

48%

Fastball

55%

⭐⭐

27%

Breaking

24%

13%

Offspeed

22%

------------------

43%

Sinker

38%

56%

Slider

24%

53%

Changeup

22%

49%

Four-Seam FB

15%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	63%	15	Bottom of zone	54	14%
	68%	57	Away / Arm Side	0	14%
⭐	75%	78	Top of zone	35	6%
	74%	46	In / Glove Side	50	5%
	70%	31	Middle	80	3%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

63%

Bottom of zone

14%

68%

Away / Arm Side

14%

⭐

75%

Top of zone

74%

In / Glove Side

70%

Middle

⭐

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	43%	83	Below the zone	7	48%
	36%	71	Away / Arm Side	32	35%
	36%	58	In / Glove Side	11	24%
⭐	40%	63	Above the zone	12	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

43%

Below the zone

48%

36%

Away / Arm Side

35%

36%

In / Glove Side

24%

⭐

40%

Above the zone

13%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	65%	101	2 Strikes	37	28%
	55%	45	Batter Ahead	3	27%
	58%	82	Batter Behind	49	27%
	33%	36	First Pitch	38	26%
⭐	57%	77	3 Balls	9	9%
⭐⭐	72%	104	Full Count	32	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

65%

101

2 Strikes

28%

55%

Batter Ahead

27%

58%

Batter Behind

27%

33%

First Pitch

26%

⭐

57%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

72%

104

Full Count