Matchup Machine

Josh Palacios

Worst 16% of matchups for Javier Assad

Javier Assad

Best 13% of matchups for Josh Palacios

Strong advantage for Palacios

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.0%	5.0%	15.5%	7.5%	21.1%
MLB (+/-)	+1.2	+0.7	+1.6	-2.2	-4.2
Palacios	+0.4	+0.1	+1.7	+0.8	-6.5
Assad	+1.2	+0.8	+0.3	-2.8	-0.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.0%

5.0%

15.5%

7.5%

21.1%

MLB (+/-)

+1.2

+0.7

+1.6

-2.2

-4.2

Palacios

+0.4

+0.1

+1.7

+0.8

-6.5

Assad

+1.2

+0.8

+0.3

-2.8

-0.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	.500
Expected From Contact →			1.61	0.00	0.13	1.47			.402

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Lineout		3%	4%	94%
2023-09-19	Single			74%	26%
2023-08-27	Walk
2023-08-27	Single		10%	56%	34%
2023-08-27	Groundout			14%	86%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	54%	78	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

54%

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	49%	64	Fastball	16	77%
	30%	37	Breaking	37	19%
	16%	82	Offspeed	63	4%
			------------------
⭐	50%	71	Sinker	24	30%
	46%	50	Cutter	38	27%
	49%	50	Four-Seam FB	23	20%
	60%	28	Slider	45	14%
	50%	46	Curveball	28	5%
	66%	68	Changeup	57	4%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

49%

Fastball

77%

30%

Breaking

19%

16%

Offspeed

------------------

⭐

50%

Sinker

30%

46%

Cutter

27%

49%

Four-Seam FB

20%

60%

Slider

14%

50%

Curveball

66%

Changeup

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	74%	46	Bottom of zone	29	13%
	76%	60	Top of zone	23	11%
⭐	69%	74	Away / Arm Side	24	10%
	65%	51	In / Glove Side	23	10%
	86%	71	Middle	44	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

74%

Bottom of zone

13%

76%

Top of zone

11%

⭐

69%

Away / Arm Side

10%

65%

In / Glove Side

10%

86%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	48%	60	Below the zone	18	39%
	33%	20	Away / Arm Side	17	31%
	30%	34	Above the zone	20	20%
	34%	27	In / Glove Side	25	20%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

48%

Below the zone

39%

33%

Away / Arm Side

31%

30%

Above the zone

20%

34%

In / Glove Side

20%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐	54%	76	Batter Ahead	2	31%
	31%	27	First Pitch	13	26%
	71%	26	2 Strikes	26	25%
⭐	64%	79	Batter Behind	36	24%
	59%	34	3 Balls	14	9%
	71%	37	Full Count	29	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐

54%

Batter Ahead

31%

First Pitch

26%

71%

2 Strikes

25%

⭐

64%

Batter Behind

24%

59%

3 Balls

71%

Full Count