Matchup Machine

Ryan McMahon

Worst 42% of matchups for Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Worst 12% of matchups for Ryan McMahon

Moderate advantage for Snell

- 5

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.1%	3.3%	9.0%	15.2%	40.9%
MLB (+/-)	+0.3	-0.9	-5.0	+5.5	+15.7
McMahon	-0.8	-1.0	-2.0	+2.4	+8.3
Snell	+0.5	-0.4	-2.3	+2.9	+8.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.1%

3.3%

9.0%

15.2%

40.9%

MLB (+/-)

+0.3

-0.9

-5.0

+5.5

+15.7

McMahon

-0.8

-1.0

-2.0

+2.4

+8.3

Snell

+0.5

-0.4

-2.3

+2.9

+8.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	13	0	0	0	0	8	2	.000
Expected From Contact →			1.11	0.00	0.03	1.07			.085

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-06-11	Strikeout
2023-06-11	Groundout			2%	98%
2023-06-11	Strikeout
2023-03-30	Strikeout
2023-03-30	Groundout			25%	75%
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Walk
2022-06-12	Strikeout
2022-06-12	Groundout			45%	54%
2022-06-12	Walk
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-18	Lineout		3%	34%	63%
2021-05-12	Flyout				100%
2021-05-12	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	49%	24	LHB vs LHP	85	19%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

49%

LHB vs LHP

19%

⭐⭐

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	46%	-14	Fastball	96	49%	⭐⭐
	25%	51	Breaking	107	33%	⭐
⭐	14%	95	Offspeed	51	18%
			------------------
	44%	-18	Four-Seam FB	75	49%	⭐
	57%	50	Curveball	111	20%	⭐⭐
	56%	83	Changeup	50	18%
	55%	24	Slider	58	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

46%

-14

Fastball

49%

⭐⭐

25%

Breaking

107

33%

⭐

14%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

44%

-18

Four-Seam FB

49%

⭐

57%

Curveball

111

20%

⭐⭐

56%

Changeup

18%

55%

Slider

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
46%	23	Away / Glove Side	89	12%	⭐⭐
73%	92	Bottom of zone	125	11%
63%	-21	Top of zone	95	7%	⭐⭐
83%	45	Middle	125	6%	⭐⭐
82%	20	In / Arm Side	89	5%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

46%

Away / Glove Side

12%

⭐⭐

73%

Bottom of zone

125

11%

63%

-21

Top of zone

⭐⭐

83%

Middle

125

⭐⭐

82%

In / Arm Side

⭐⭐

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	46%	33	Below the zone	74	48%	⭐
	25%	38	Away / Glove Side	52	44%
	23%	26	Above the zone	49	19%
⭐	50%	62	In / Arm Side	19	8%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

46%

Below the zone

48%

⭐

25%

Away / Glove Side

44%

23%

Above the zone

19%

⭐

50%

In / Arm Side

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
58%	29	Batter Ahead	69	32%
63%	57	2 Strikes	118	29%	⭐⭐
51%	16	Batter Behind	125	25%	⭐⭐
37%	51	First Pitch	99	24%	⭐
67%	81	3 Balls	73	12%
69%	93	Full Count	75	7%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

58%

Batter Ahead

32%

63%

2 Strikes

118

29%

⭐⭐

51%

Batter Behind

125

25%

⭐⭐

37%

First Pitch

24%

⭐

67%

3 Balls

12%

69%

Full Count