Matchup Machine

J.P. Crawford

Worst 4% of matchups for Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn

Best 18% of matchups for J.P. Crawford

Extreme advantage for Crawford

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.4%	4.1%	16.2%	12.1%	21.6%
MLB (+/-)	+1.6	-0.2	+2.2	+2.5	-3.7
Crawford	+0.6	-0.3	+2.8	-0.5	-0.7
Blackburn	+1.5	-0.2	-0.2	+2.2	-3.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.4%

4.1%

16.2%

12.1%

21.6%

MLB (+/-)

+1.6

-0.2

+2.2

+2.5

-3.7

Crawford

+0.6

-0.3

+2.8

-0.5

-0.7

Blackburn

+1.5

-0.2

+2.2

-3.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	16	16	5	0	2	3	2	0	.313
Expected From Contact →			4.50	0.00	0.60	3.90			.281

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			22%	78%
2023-09-19	Lineout		1%	7%	92%
2023-09-19	Flyout				100%
2022-06-22	Lineout		7%	61%	32%
2022-06-22	Double		8%	84%	7%
2022-06-22	Strikeout
2022-05-25	Single		5%	73%	22%
2022-05-25	Pop Out				99%
2021-09-21	Single			33%	66%
2021-09-21	Groundout			30%	70%
2021-09-21	Lineout		17%	4%	79%
2021-08-23	Groundout			3%	97%
2021-08-23	Single		1%	68%	31%
2021-08-23	Strikeout
2020-09-26	Groundout			3%	97%
2020-09-26	Double		17%	2%	81%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐	39%	71	LHB vs RHP	22	46%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐

39%

LHB vs RHP

46%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐	39%	72	Fastball	22	59%
	20%	13	Breaking	60	30%	⭐
	11%	70	Offspeed	57	11%
			------------------
⭐	35%	70	Sinker	25	25%
	36%	54	Cutter	58	20%
	40%	0	Slider	59	19%
	41%	65	Four-Seam FB	32	13%
	39%	41	Curveball	50	12%
	43%	57	Changeup	54	11%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐

39%

Fastball

59%

20%

Breaking

30%

⭐

11%

Offspeed

11%

------------------

⭐

35%

Sinker

25%

36%

Cutter

20%

40%

Slider

19%

41%

Four-Seam FB

13%

39%

Curveball

12%

43%

Changeup

11%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	63%	73	Bottom of zone	51	11%
	49%	40	In / Glove Side	6	10%
	58%	2	Top of zone	19	9%
	58%	44	Away / Arm Side	17	9%
⭐	77%	76	Middle	31	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

63%

Bottom of zone

11%

49%

In / Glove Side

10%

58%

Top of zone

58%

Away / Arm Side

⭐

77%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	32%	67	Below the zone	52	42%
	21%	62	In / Glove Side	63	29%
⭐	20%	78	Away / Arm Side	21	24%
	20%	19	Above the zone	23	18%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

32%

Below the zone

42%

21%

In / Glove Side

29%

⭐

20%

Away / Arm Side

24%

20%

Above the zone

18%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	59%	34	2 Strikes	52	30%
	42%	45	Batter Ahead	14	28%
	46%	45	Batter Behind	56	27%
⭐	18%	73	First Pitch	31	25%
	48%	53	3 Balls	27	9%
	68%	-1	Full Count	21	6%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

59%

2 Strikes

30%

42%

Batter Ahead

28%

46%

Batter Behind

27%

⭐

18%

First Pitch

25%

48%

3 Balls

68%

-1

Full Count